Research On Carless Evacuation Demand Forecasting And Pickup Facility Location Design Under Typhoon Disasters

With the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoon disasters to human lives,the large scale emergency evacuation has already become an active and effectivemethod to avoid or decrease economy losses. Emergency evacuation is required to besafe, low risky, rapid, and high effective due to the urgency of typhoon disasters;therefore, most researches were mostly focused on automobile groups which are in themajority of evacuees to explore effective evacuation strategies. However, afterexperienced with hurricane Katrina, Gustav, and Ike, it was found that carless andvulnerable population is the key point that restricts the performance of a high effectiveemergency evacuation. Carless evacuees cover a great range of groups and put moreconcentration on evacuation organization and transportation support compared toautomobile evacuees. Therefore, how to make effective evacuation organization strategyand improve the carless evacuation efficiency is an important topic in emergencymanagement.The carless emergency evacuation problem under typhoon disaster has to bestudied systematically, and a reasonable and effective organization strategy is thefoundation of a successful evacuation practice; while capturing and understanding theevacuation behaviors of carless evacuees is the basic condition of making suchorganization strategy. In this study, it follows the roadmap of carless evacuationbehavior analysis, evacuation demand forecasting, and evacuation pickup facilitylocation design under typoon disasters.Firstly, the basic problems of carless evacuation under typhoon conditions wereintroduced and the related evacuation problems studied in this paper are further defined,including typhoon conditions that trigger a large-scale emergency evacuation,evacuation groups, evacuation scope, evacuation modes, and evacuation periods. It wasfollowed by large scale emergency evacuation behavior analysis based on a Stated-Preference (SP) survey on evacuees’ evacuation decisions so as to provide data supportfor the evacuation demand prediction and evacuation organization strategy studies.Secondly, from the point of micro behavior analysis, the final evacuation decision-making mechanism was studied, and an evacuation risk tolerance threshold model wasgiven based on bounded rationality theory and Probit regression method. The risk- resistant capability of evacuee under typhoon disaster was analyzed to predict the exactoriginal evacuation demand.Thirdly, based on small group evacuation gathering location chosen model,evacuee’s group gathering behavior under typhoon conditions was targeted, and theeffect of group gathering behavior on the evacuation demand forcasting result wastypically analyzed.Fourthly, a transit-based evacuation organization strategy was constructed, and areliable emergency facility location design model was proposed to determine theoptimal transit pickup facility locations, evacuee allocations, and evacuation vehicledispatching schedules, when facilities were subject to disruption risks due to typhoondisasters. The waiting cost and exposure risks of carless people in the inclementsurroundings were systematically studied.Finally, a case study of carless evacuation planning in a certain urban districtnetwork was conducted. The optimal pickup facility locations and service assignmentunder different evacuation demand inputs and different evacuation behaviors (especiallythe group gathering behavior of evacuees) were compared and analyzed. Based on theresearch results, the strategy proposals for emergency evacuation management practiceunder typhoon disasters were provided.Based on the current research achievements in the carless evacuation field, thispaper deeply explored the key problems produced in the carless evacuation processunder typhoon disasters by adopting statistical methods, behavior analysis andoptimization theory. The research results not only can enrich the current emergencyevacuation management theory system, but also improve urban emergency practicecapability, crisis management capacity and the overall urban disaster response capacity,so this research has important theoretical significance and practical value.