Research On The Forecast Of Railway Freight Volume Based On BP Neural Network Optimized By Genetic Algorithm And The Influence Factors

The accuracy of the forecast results of railway freight volume is of great significance to railway transport enterprises in determining input and output and formulating development policies,and has a certain guiding role in the rationality of railway freight development.In 2018,the General Office of the State Council issued the "Three-year Action Plan for Promoting the Adjustment of Transportation Structure(2018-2020)".This guiding article emphasizes the basic goal of strengthening the structural reform of national freight transportation,and gradually optimizes the transportation structure of our country,fully reflecting the advantages of water transport and railway in bulk cargo transportation.At the same time,the state pays more attention to promoting the action plan of "transforming the railway",puts forward new guiding opinions for realizing the sustainable development of economy and the normal operation of the bottom transportation,and highlights the advantages of large-scale railway transportation on the basis of winning the blue sky defense war.At present,the influencing factors of China’s railway freight volume are relatively complex,and the advantages of typical economic characteristics represented by GDP on the trend of railway freight volume change are weakening in terms of correlation degree and development explanation.The long-term economic stability and changes in industrial structure and spatial layout in the new period make it difficult to accurately grasp the development trend of railway freight volume at this stage,and the trend of macro-control policies is becoming more and more obvious,and the development trend of railway freight volume is obviously active.In such a macro-complex environment,the improvement ability and scientificity of railway freight volume forecast have played a unique advantage in the current research.The main content of this paper is to draw lessons from the forecasting methods with outstanding advantages in other fields,weaken the development characteristics of time trends,highlight the importance of influencing factors,build forecasting models and forecast railway freight volume,and provide guiding significance for the decision-making of railway management and grass-roots work.Firstly,this paper introduces the traditional advantages of railway freight transportation,summarizes the development characteristics of railway freight transportation,analyzes the related influencing factors,and illustrates the great significance of using the forecasting method which can simulate the actual freight transportation development and effectively forecast the freight transportation prospect under the current development environment which is different from the past,with the positive influence of the national macro support policy and the modernization development ability derived from the railway itself on the railway freight transportation development under the macro background.Secondly,the traditional qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods are described,summarized and commented.At the same time,it analyzes the influencing factors of railway freight volume under the national macro-control,focusing on railway supply and social demand.On the basis of quantifiable nine influencing factors,a neural network model was built and designed,and the validity of the model was verified by comparison design.In the research process,the BP algorithm optimized by genetic algorithm and the traditional BP algorithm were analyzed,and the advantages of the optimized algorithm in application were verified,which not only reduced the possibility of over-fitting problem,but also effectively played the role of combination algorithm in highlighting influencing factors and realizing better simulation operation.The possible causes of prediction errors were clarified by summarizing the prediction stage.Finally,the main conclusions of this paper are summarized,and suggestions on the development direction of railway freight transportation in the short and long term are put forward.By expanding transportation capacity,optimizing product supply,developing multimodal transport,and strengthening the smooth flow of electronic information,the reform and effective exploration are continuously deepened,so that the development of railway freight transportation can improve for a long time with the economic development trend,and finally maintain a stable trend.