Wind Power Sequence Scene Set Generation Method For Power System Dispatch

Wind power output has obvious characteristics of uncertainty,such as randomness,volatility,and intermittency,with the continuous increase of wind power penetration,generating a wind power sequence scenario set that meet the timing requirements is used to describe the uncertainty of future wind power output,which is of great significance for power system dispatching with large-scale wind power.The wind power sequence scenario set for power system dispatching needs to have the ability to describe the randomness and time sequence of future wind power at the same time.Based on this,this paper proposes a two-stage generation method of wind power sequence scenario set based on adaptive prediction box and state transition probability matrix.In the single-period analysis stage,this paper studies a static scene set generation method based on adaptive prediction box technology.Improve the traditional forecasting box technology,by generating an adaptive forecasting box to describe the probability distribution of prediction errors under different predicted output amplitudes,randomly sampling the probability distribution and superimposing it with the predicted value,which is equivalent to sampling wind power output,the advantage of the adaptive prediction box in fitting the probability distribution of prediction errors is transferred to the static scene set generation process to obtain a certain scale of static scene set,and verify the rationality of the proposed generation method from two aspects: numerical statistical characteristics and quantile probability distribution regression.In the multi-period analysis stage,based on the static scene set,this paper proposes a sequence scene set generation method that combines the state transition probability matrix and the tabu search algorithm.This method is based on the premise of ensuring the randomness of wind power,with the main goal of improving the timing of sequence scene sets,and focusing on solving the connection problem of static scene sets in adjacent periods.Combining the state transition probability matrix to determine the initial solution of the tabu search algorithm and the state transition of the sequence scene in the neighborhood solution,filter out unreasonable fluctuations in the multi-period transition process,after an iterative process,a sequence scene set that not only meets the random characteristics of wind power,but also meets the timing requirements is generated,and a wind power sequence scene set generation method with high scene quality and computational efficiency is formed.Finally,this paper uses foreign and domestic wind power data as the original data,and applies the proposed sequence scenario set generation method to the optimization calculation of grid dispatching considering large-scale wind power integration,by comparing and analyzing the relevant evaluation indicators between different algorithms,the application value of the proposed method in actual engineering is verified,and the influence of algorithm parameters on the actual application effect is studied,which provides a reference for engineering and technical personnel.