| Collusion,a quite common phenomenon in construction industry bidding,breaks the fairness of market competition and threats the sustainable development of China’s construction industry.Although government departments have carried out various special rectification activities to curb collusion,the collusion management has achieved little effect.The reason is that the cognitive bias at the bottom of the collusive individual behavior is unclear,and it’s difficult to solve the problem without knowing their thoughts.This study aims to find the mechanism of cognitive bias formation and find how cognitive bias works with collusion action through scenario simulation.Measures to prohibit collusion are also given.Based on collusion theory,cognitive bias theory,social cognitive theory and complex adaptive theory,this study constructs a logical research framework of“environmental factors and personal factors-cognitive bias of colluding bidders-collusive behavior decision-making”.Firstly,the types of cognitive bias(overconfidence,control illusions,and cognitive dissonance)and influencing factors were determined by literature review and expert scoring.Questionnaire survey and cloud model method were applied to measure the characteristic value and weight of cognitive bias and its influencing factors.Secondly,Vensim software was used to build a simulation model of collusion behavior decision-making,which was used to analyze the evolution law of collusion behavior decision-making under the initial state and cognitive deviation changes.Based on the model,five scenarios,are set to clarify the changing laws of cognitive bias and the decision-making mechanism of collusion behavior,including collusion motivation,corporate performance,corporate social network relationships,government personnel changes,and government regulation and supervision.The results show that:(1)There are three types of cognitive biases: overconfidence,control illusion and cognitive dissonance.The deeper the deviation,the stronger the willingness to participate in the collusion behavior.(2)The higher the profit of collusion,the more enterprises tend to participate in collusion.(3)Low performance enterprises with weak competitiveness will actively join in collusion.(4)Over-embedded social network relationships promote enterprises to participate in the collusion in the form of cooperation.(5)Government personnel changes reduce the cognitive bias of the collusive individuals,which leads to a weakening of the willingness to collude.(6)The government can effectively reduce the occurrence of collusion by increasing the intensity of economic penalties and increasing the frequency of supervision.Therefore,the study proposes collusive behavior governance countermeasures from four aspects: innovative multiparty linkage supervision and grid management,role model image benchmarking and credit system construction,improvement of legal system and administrative system construction,and implementation and innovation of big data supervision.The research reveals the evolutionary law of collusion behavior decision-making under the effect of cognitive bias and enriches the influencing factor framework and theoretical application range of collusion behavior.It helps the government better understand the decision-making process of collusion under the influence of cognitive bias,formulate targeted countermeasures for collusion governance,and make the construction industry healthier and more orderly. |
