Study On The Prediction Method Of Energy Consumption For A Certain Regional Energy Station

In today’s world,human production and life are inseparable from energy.The rapid development of our country is inseparable from energy consumption.At the same time,our country is facing development constraints of high energy consumption and high environmental pressure.With the tense energy situation,regional energy technology has become a new way of urban energy conservation and emission reduction.In recent years,with the rapid development of social economy and the steady progress of urbanization,major cities in my country have successively built large-scale business districts.The number of energy stations is developing rapidly,but there are often many problems in actual operation,such as low occupancy rate in the energy supply area,long-term low load rate operation of the system,and low energy efficiency of the system.In order to guide the energy-saving operation of the system,it is extremely urgent to realize the energy consumption prediction of the energy station operation.This paper first compares the existing energy consumption prediction methods of regional energy stations,and concludes that the forecast method of energy consumption of energy stations based on load prediction combined with equipment energy consumption model is more suitable for building operation stage.Then,a comparative analysis of the current research status of regional building load forecasting methods is carried out.Aiming at the early stage of building operation,the scenario simulation method has good reliability and high accuracy.Secondly,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the energy consumption of the regional energy station operation,and based on the actual operation of the regional energy station system and energy consumption,the influencing factors of the energy consumption of the project are analyzed.Based on the summary of the development history of the existing park and combined with the project planning,the development stage of the park served by the energy station is set as the initial stage,the growth stage and the mature stage,so as to determine the occupancy analysis of each functional building in the park at each stage.By using the method of orthogonal experimental design,different combinations of buildings with different occupancy rates and different internal disturbances are realized in the initial stage and the growth stage respectively,and the building loads of different combinations are obtained.Combined with the equipment energy consumption model,the annual energy consumption index of the energy station under different building loads is calculated.At the same time,taking an office building and a canteen as an example,the simulation results and the actual measurement results are compared to verify the rationality of the simplified model used in the De ST simulation and the indoor thermal disturbance parameter settings.By comparison,the error of canteen simulation results is-0.07% in summer,-8.18% in winter and-3.17% in the whole year.The error of office building simulation results is: 2.62% in summer,-12.93% in winter,and-4.2% in the whole year.After verification,it is confirmed that the simulation method is reasonable.Based on the range analysis of the orthogonal test results of building heating and cooling load and system energy consumption in the initial stage and the growth stage,it is concluded that building disturbance has significant influence on building load and system energy consumption,but the building occupancy rate has extremely significant influence on system energy consumption,and has no significant influence on building heating and cooling load.Compared with the energy consumption factors in the initial stage and the growth stage,the personnel density of office buildings and the fresh air volume index of office buildings are both significant influencing factors,but the growth stage increases the influence of hotel occupancy rate and the commercial building personnel density.Based on the correlation analysis of the influencing factors of the system energy consumption in the initial stage and the growth stage of the park,the mathematical models of the annual operation energy consumption and the influencing factors of the system in the initial stage and the growth stage are constructed by using the multiple linear regression method,and the energy consumption prediction models of the park in different stages are obtained.Finally,the actual operation of the project is investigated,and the actual operation data of the project is obtained.The energy consumption prediction model is verified and error analysis is carried out.The error between the predicted value of the model and the actual test value of the project is less than 18%,which provides a reference Engineering method for energy consumption prediction.Through the analysis of the error reasons,it is concluded that the main reasons that affect the actual measurement results and the simulation results are the low personnel density in the park,the low utilization rate of the fresh air system,and the large value of the fresh air volume index.Then,by comparing the energy consumption index and system performance coefficient under the actual operation strategy and the variable flow operation strategy,it is concluded that the annual energy consumption index of the system under the variable flow operation strategy is reduced by 28.6%.The heating performance coefficient in the heating season is increased by 1.9% under the variable flow operation strategy.Under the variable flow operation strategy,the refrigeration performance coefficient in the refrigeration season is increased by 15%,and the system has great energy saving potential.To sum up,in the initial operation of buildings by using scenario analysis of park development phase of the scene is set,using the orthogonal experimental design to complete each stage of development within the building occupancy rate and the combination of perturbation,implementation under the different combination forms of building load forecasting,combined with the equipment energy consumption model,calculate the energy standing on the running energy consumption under different building load,by using multiple linear regression to build energy station energy consumption prediction model in different stage of development.With high accuracy and comprehensive consideration,the model can effectively predict the energy consumption of the system,and can be used to predict the energy consumption of energy stations,so as to guide the energy saving operation of the system.