Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Energy Consumption In Beijing And Short-term Forecast

The CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued a notice,and decided to establish Hebei Xiong'an District.This is a major historic strategic choice made by the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core.The establishment of Xiong'an New District is an important measure to cope with population density and resource shortages in Beijing,the demand for energy is gradually increasing with the development of the community in Beijing,while at the same time,the Beijing economic development of the energy supply constraints become more and more obvious.Therefore,for the Beijing,energy consumption of the impact of factors analysis and short-term forecast is very necessary.This paper first analyzes the relationship between the total energy consumption in Beijing and the factors such as regional GDP,energy consumption varieties,industrial structure and energy efficiency.Then,the principal component analysis was carried out on the factors affecting Beijing's energy consumption.Through analysis,we can see that the main factors that affect Beijing's energy consumption are the development of the tertiary industry,the diversity of energy consumption and the level of economic development.Then the decision tree was used for further analysis.Based on the values of 13 input variables such as per capital GDP,urbanization rate and tertiary industry,this paper constructs a suitable model to predict the general range of energy consumption in Beijing and is presented in tree structure.Finally,a gray model,a stochastic time series model and a multiple linear model are established for the energy consumption in Beijing.By comparing the prediction errors of each model,it is found that the best model for forecasting the total energy consumption in Beijing is ARIMA(1,2,1).On this basis,the total energy consumption in Beijing from 2019 to 2023 forecast,and according to the actual situation of the corresponding policy recommendations.The innovation of this paper is that we establish a number of prediction models based on the analysis of a series of factors,and compare these fitting accuracy to select the optimal model,this prediction method can be a more in-depth understanding of the object,Moreaccurate.The development of energy plays an important role in the development of a city.The final prediction results of this paper can provide some reference for the future development plan of Beijing.It has very practical significance.