Research On Risk Sharing Of Metro PPP Project

With the recent speedy development of urbanization in China,the number of urban residents has increased sharply.In order to deal with the traffic congestion,subway projects have been developed in many places.However,due to its high cost,long payback period and wide coverage,subway not only faces a lot of uncertainties,but also brings serious financial pressure to local governments.Therefore,local governments began to try to introduce PPP mode into metro projects.PPP mode is a cooperative relationship based on benefit sharing and risk sharing with partnership as the core,which can reduce the pressure of government funds and promote the overall quality of the project.Due to the diversity of PPP project mode,the variety of metro project risk factors,and the number of Metro PPP project participants and different interest demands of each participant,whether the overall process risk of Metro PPP project can be comprehensively identified and scientifically evaluated,and whether the fair and reasonable risk sharing among the participants is related to the success of Metro PPP project construction and operation and the realization of quality and benefit The key points of the research are as follows.Firstly,this paper uses Citespace to analyze the key words,co-occurrence clustering and development trend of the risk research field of urban rail transit PPP projects at home and abroad,and obtains the development law and development direction of the research field;secondly,it introduces the concepts of metro project and PPP model,project risk sharing,game theory and other related theories;Then,according to the literature research method and questionnaire survey method,the risk factors of Metro PPP project are determined.According to the construction principle of risk evaluation index system,the risk evaluation index of the project is established,and the structural equation model(SEM)is used to construct the risk evaluation model,which can determine the influence degree of the risk factors of the subway PPP project;and the method and tool based on game theory are applied to subway PPP In this project,the government and private sectors are taken as the research objects.The first risk sharing game model of the two departments is established through risk preference,and then the risk re sharing game model of the two departments is established through bargaining under incomplete information.The corresponding refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium solution of the model is used to calculate the respective risk sharing proportion of the two sides of the subway PPP project;Finally,taking Qingdao line 6 as an example,the applicability and scientific rationality of the above model are studied.Moreover,according to the results of case analysis,the risk prevention measures are given from the perspective of government departments and private sectors,which provides certain theoretical basis for the formulation of scientific risk sharing scheme for the subway PPP project.