Supply Optimization For Bicycle Sharing System Considering The Balance Of Agglomeration Risk And Service Level

Nowadays,shared bicycles are rapidly developing in major cities due to their advantages of flexibility,convenience and environmental protection.Shared bicycle companies have put a lot of shared bicycles on the market for competition,resulting in the phenomenon of agglomeration of shared bicycles,which occupy a lot of road resources.It has a negative impact on pedestrian flow,especially when the density of pedestrian flow is large when some largescale events are held.There are certain security risks.The security risks are referred to as the agglomeration risk of shared bicycles.Therefore,how to control the number of shared bicycles to achieve a certain level of service to reduce their agglomeration risk and achieve a balance between safety and efficiency is of great practical significance.First of all,based on the shared bicycle travel data and road information data,the research area is determined,the traffic area is divided,and the travel characteristics of the shared bicycle are analyzed after the data is preprocessed.According to the shared bicycle’s distance and duration and the shared bicycle travel information in the traffic zone,the characteristics of the shared bicycle are analyzed in time and space dimensions.Secondly,in order to quantify the agglomeration risk of shared bicycles,this article starts from the perspective of the effect of agglomeration of shared bicycles on pedestrian flow.Based on the pedestrian dynamic theory and the formation and evolution of crowded trampling risk accidents,a model of stranded people is established.Density is used as an evaluation indicator to measure the agglomeration risk of shared bicycles.The shared bicycle agglomeration risk evaluation model shows that the agglomeration risk is affected by road length,time,pedestrian density and shared bicycle density.Pedestrian density and shared bicycle density have significant effects.Under the same pedestrian density,the greater the shared bicycle density,the greater the agglomeration risk.As the shared bicycle density reaches a certain value,the increase in risk value increases and the overall exponential growth trend.Thirdly,the service level of the shared bicycle system is described from the perspective of the probability that the shared bicycle demand is met,and the circulation process of the shared bicycle is analyzed and described by Markov chain and state transition matrix,combined with the typical Poisson distribution in the service system to determine the demand for shared bicycles under different service levels.The shared bicycle service level evaluation model shows that: under the condition that the demand for shared bicycles is unchanged,the service level of shared bicycles is significantly affected by the volume of delivery.The more the volume of bicycles is,the higher the service level is.When the service level is 0.95,the delivery volume is reduced by 24.2% compared with the reality.Finally,this paper constructs a comprehensive index that considers the shared bicycle agglomeration risk and service level,builds a shared bicycle delivery model that balances the agglomeration risk and service level,and use this to solve the delivery of each node under the balanced agglomeration risk and service level.The size of the bicycles in the area is optimized to better meet the residents’ demand for shared bicycles while reducing pedestrian safety risks.