A Study On The Affected Area Of Bus Stops At Urban Intersections On Motor Vehicle Safety

With the steady progress of China’s public transport priority,the Transit Metropolis and other transportation development strategies,the layout of urban bus stops has been continuously encrypted,and the frequency of bus departures has continued to increase.In the process of bus frequent arrivals and departures at bus stops,driving behaviors such as deceleration,lane change,parking,and accelerate often affect the normal operation of surrounding vehicles,reduce traffic efficiency,and pose potential safety hazards.In this process,the impact of bus vehicles on traffic flow has a certain range,that is," the affected area of bus stop ",which is particularly prominent in bus stops near intersections.At present,domestic and international researches on traffic safety issues around the bus stops at upstream and downstream intersections are not perfect.In view of this point,this paper collects video data of bus stops at urban intersections,and obtains conflict data between motor vehicles in the area affected by bus stops based on traffic conflict technology,using TTC as a conflict measurement index.Study the traffic flow characteristics and road safety characteristics of the area affected by bus stops,establish a traffic conflict prediction model,compare the fitness and prediction accuracy of the Poisson model and the negative binomial model,and use the random effect model to deal with the problem of data heterogeneity.Based on the optimal model,the marginal effects of variables are calculated respectively,and the influence of traffic flow,road design,bus stop design,and bus stop behavior factors on the number of traffic conflicts is quantitatively analyzed.The study found that the fitness and prediction accuracy of the negative binomial model are better than the Poisson model,and the random effect model considering heterogeneity is better than the traditional fixed parameter model.The random effect negative binomial model calibrated 15 significant variables.It was found that variables such as traffic flow,number of lane-changing,and bus driving behavior are important factors that trigger traffic conflicts.Increase the number of lanes,set up non-isolated belts,increase the distance between the bus stop and the intersection,laying down downstream bus stops,bus stops combining with widening sections,and adding berths can effectively reduce the occurrence of traffic conflicts.The results of this paper are helpful to understand the conflict mechanism of the affected area of bus stops at intersections,and provide a reference for the subsequent improvement of the safety level of bus stops.