Traffic Accident Frequency Prediction Method On Expressway

The rapid development of expressway has promoted the further economic development and social progress. However, the high number of traffic accident frequency and casualty brings large loss to our society and people. To identity the main induction factors of traffic accident frequency and analyze the relationship between traffic accident frequency and main influence factors such as road conditions, traffic conditions on expressway can analyze the formation mechanism of traffic accident and being targeted to take preventive action and improvement measure in time so that reduce the traffic accident frequency and improve the whole safety of expressway. This paper carries on an in-depth study on the prediction of traffic accident frequency on express combining practical scientific research.To analysis influence factors of traffic accidents on expressway from four aspects: human factors, vehicle factors, road conditions and environmental factors. Then to collect accident data, traffic data and road alignment data of the road segment on specific time period. Filtering out the relevant variables used to build traffic accident frequency prediction model.The research findings of some scholars were summarized to build the theory of traffic accident frequency prediction. In order to analyze the relationship between the traffic accident frequency and road conditions and traffic conditions on expressway, the traffic accident frequency prediction model were established based on negative binomial regression model, generalized negative binomial regression model, random effects negative binomial regression model and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model respectively. According to the results of goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy, the established models were compared to the conditional negative binomial regression model. The elastic analysis was used to determine the influence degree of the independent variables on the dependent variable.Finally, independent variables were selected from the aspect of road conditions and traffic conditions, and two kinds of different section divided method were adopted, which produced the fixed-length segment and the unfixed-length segment, the empirical analysis research was given for the traffic accidents prediction models.