Research On Passenger Flow Forecasting Model Of Mountain Tourism Rail Transit And Its Application

With the rapid economic growth in our country,people’s work and living pressure are increasing,people’s demand for relief from tourism is more urgent,and the contradiction between scenic area resources and people’s tourism needs is becoming increasingly acute.The sudden increase in passenger flow during tourist peak seasons such as holidays has even rendered the internal and external traffic in the scenic area "paralyzed",which fully shows the passiveness of the scenic area in responding to the surge in passenger flow and the inadequacy of transportation planning by relevant departments.Under the current state’s emphasis on improving the comprehensive transportation system and advocating the integrated development of transportation and tourism,a number of rail transit projects newly built in mountainous tourist attractions are under active planning and construction.Relieving the pressure of passenger transportation during peak periods in scenic spots has played a positive role.However,in order to truly transform the situation of the scenic spot and related transportation departments from passive to active response,it is also necessary to build a targeted passenger flow prediction model.This paper takes mountain tourism rail transit as the research object,and based on extensive literature review at home and abroad,summarizes the inadequacy of existing prediction methods,and proposes and builds a more targeted mountain tourism rail transit passenger flow prediction model.(1)Based on the two indicators of the geographical concentration of the distribution of mountainous tourist attractions and the regional distribution of mountainous tourist attractions,the distribution of mountainous tourist resources in China is studied.On this basis,the development and positioning of mountainous tourist rail transit is defined,and mountainous tourism Characteristics of passenger flow in the scenic area.(2)Study the particularity of the model for predicting passenger flow in mountain tourism rail transit,and on the basis of summing up the inadequacy of traditional rail transit forecasting methods,propose the construction of a three-step model for passenger flow forecasting.Nested Logit model of economic cost,comfort cost,and generalized cost of travel safety,predicts the passenger flow transfer rate after mountain tourism rail transit is completed and put into operation;the second is to use the passenger flow in key scenic spots as the basis for the maximum passenger transport demand across the entire new rail transit Based on the Census-X12 multiplication model,the passenger flow time series of key scenic spots are decomposed,and the changes of each decomposition sequence are studied separately.The ARIMA model is established for the trend cycle sequence obtained by the decomposition,and then the passenger traffic of the corresponding year is comprehensively predicted;Based on the passenger flow transfer rate and passenger flow in key scenic spots,the passenger flow of mountain tourism rail transit is predicted.(3)Combined with the current state’s new trend of integrated development of transportation and tourism,take the planning and construction of the Dujiangyan-Siguniangshan tourist rail transit as an example,and apply the constructed prediction model.The results show that the model can effectively realize passenger flow prediction of mountain tourism rail transit.