| As a bridge connecting regional production and consumption,regional logistics plays an important role in improving regional competitiveness.Railway terminal is an important part of the logistics and transportation system,which directly affects the level of logistics development.The construction of railway terminal is an interactive relationship with the development of regional logistics.What’s more,the construction of railway terminal is beneficial to the development of regional logistics,and the demand for regional logistics is the driving force for the development of railway terminal.In general,the overall development level of regional logistics in the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits is not high,and the development of each city is quite different,which seriously restricts the regional logistics development in the region.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze regional logistics and systematically explore the influence of railway terminal on regional logistics in the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits,which is a good way to accelerate the development and balance regional economic gaps.In this context,this thesis mainly adapts the system dynamics method to analyze the influence of railway terminal on regional logistics of the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits.First of all,this paper describes the current situation of regional logistics in the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits by using the ARCGIS software to draw the color distribution map.Then,considering the regional logistics economic subsystem,regional logistics transportation subsystem and regional logistics employment subsystem,the RAIL-RE system dynamics model is established by using the VENSIM PLE software from 2007 to 2025.Additionally,in order to explore the impact of railway terminal on regional logistics in Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits,this paper increases or decreases the proportion of investment of the railway terminal by 10% to carry out policy simulation.At the same time,using the output value of the logistics industry in the regional logistics economic subsystem,the freight volume in the regional logistics transportation subsystem and the number of employed people in the logistics industry in the regional logistics employment subsystem as index to describe regional logistics development level,this paper builds the RAIL-RE panel data model and uses STATA12.0 software to carry out panel data regression analysis.It is mainly to evaluate the specific impact of railway terminal on regional logistics in the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits.The results show that:(1)In the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits,there are obvious gradient differences in the development level of regional logistics,but the overall trend is rising.(2)The proportion of railway terminal investment affects the development level of regional logistics in the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits.Increasing the proportion of railway terminal investment is conducive to promoting the GDP,the output value of the logistics industry,the freight volume and the number of employed people in the logistics industry in this area.(3)The construction of railway terminal is beneficial to the improvement of the regional logistics development degree in the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits.To be more specific,for every 1% increase in the space-time effect caused by railway terminal,the change degree of the output value of the logistics industry increases by 0.07%～0.12%,the change degree of the freight volume increases by 0.009%～0.03% and the change degree of the number of employed people in the logistics industry increases by0.0004%～0.001%.Overall,the construction of railway terminal promotes the development level of regional logistics in the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits.It is beneficial to coordinate development and further improve the status of the Economic Zone on the West Side of the Straits in the urban agglomerations in eastern coastal area of China. |
