Research On The Resilience Of Urban Transportation Infrastructure Based On System Dynamics

With the continuous advancement of urbanization,factors such as population and resources continue to gather in urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas,and cities have become more and more sophisticated,large and complex individuals.With the increase in the level of urbanization,the internal and external risks faced by cities are also expanding.These risks are often difficult to predict and unavoidable.How to deal with the impact of uncertainty has become a new topic in urban development.In this context,resilient cities that emphasize "disaster tolerance"capabilities provide new development ideas.Urban infrastructure is the skeleton of a city and the most important carrier when risks come.The resilience of urban infrastructure is an important part of urban resilience.Among them,transportation infrastructure is one of the most vulnerable key infrastructures.It is related to providing access to the disaster area to support emergency response and long-term recovery after the disaster,and is an important prerequisite for the normal operation of urban functions.The improvement of the resilience of urban transportation infrastructure has played a key role in improving the overall resilience of the city.This paper deeply analyzes the current research status of urban and transportation infrastructure resilience issues at home and abroad,and finds that most scholars often use a single engineering perspective when studying the resilience of transportation infrastructure,focusing on the study of the curve of infrastructure functions over time.Ignore the discussion of the factors that cause the system’s resilience changes and the interrelationship between the factors.Resilience,as an inherent attribute of transportation infrastructure systems,has rich connotations.Research on resilience issues can help discover and solve unreasonable problems within the urban transportation infrastructure system,and improve the disaster tolerance of urban transportation infrastructure.This article uses complex system theory and resilience theory to first analyze the resilience of urban transportation infrastructure from the three process dimensions of "resistance,recovery,and adaptation".Second,it analyzes the characteristics of resilience at different stages.Among them,the resilience characteristics of the resistance stage are mainly robustness,connectivity,and redundancy,and the resilience characteristics of the recovery stage are mainly manifested as subjectivity,collaboration,institutionalization,and adaptation.The characteristics of resilience are mainly manifested as intelligence,diversity,and modularity.Then identify the main resilience driving factors according to the above-mentioned resilience characteristics:in the resistance resilience stage,the driving factors corresponding to robustness are the investment scale and maintenance degree of transportation infrastructure and road pressure,and the driving factors corresponding to connectivity are the difference between branch roads and main roads.The driving factor corresponding to the proportion and redundancy is the road network density;in the recovery resilience phase,the driving factors corresponding to the subjectivity are the disaster relief management capabilities of government agencies and the level of participation of social forces in disaster relief,and the driving factors corresponding to the collaboration are the number of disaster drills and the city For the registered population,the driving factors corresponding to institutionalization are the level of precision and implementation of emergency management regulations;in the adaptive resilience stage,the driving factors for smartness are the scale of scientific and technological research and development investment and the conversion rate of scientific and technological achievements,and the driving factors for diversity are The driving factor for the diversity of travel demand and travel supply is the multi-functional group scale.Based on the above-established resilience research and analysis framework,the system dynamics method is used to further analyze the action mechanism and interaction paths between resilience driving factors,thereby constructing the causal loop model and the stock flow model of the resilience system of urban transportation infrastructure.The transportation infrastructure resilience system is simulated as an example,and the following conclusions are drawn:(1)In a city with sustained economic growth and continuous population influx,its comprehensive transportation resilience is steadily improving.(2)Resilience can be improved by increasing the ratio of branch roads to trunk roads in the road network,resilience can be improved by increasing the number of disaster drills and the level of participation of social forces in disaster relief,and resilience can be improved by increasing the conversion rate of scientific and technological achievements.(3)Among the three process dimensions of resilience,restoration of resilience has the best effect on improving overall resilience,followed by adaptive resilience,and finally resistance resilience.In the future,attention should be paid to the construction of systemic resilience and adaptive resilience.This paper integrates the resilience process dimension and resilience characteristic dimension into a system,and uses the method of system dynamics to dynamically analyze the interaction between the driving factors of urban transportation infrastructure resilience,and makes up for the neglect of related research to constitute infrastructure resilience.Factors and the lack of interrelationship between factors.However,the urban transportation infrastructure resilience system is a complex coupled system with many influencing factors.The model structure and variable definitions still need to be improved.Improvements can be made in the later period to improve the applicability of the model.The research on the resilience of infrastructure provided reference ideas and support for the research on urban resilience.