Research On Comprehensive Evaluation Of Integrated Energy Projects In The Park

Traditional energy projects are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil energy.At the same time,there is limited connection among energy subsystems.As a result,energy industry is now facing more and more problems such as slowing demand,over-capacity,low energy utilization efficiency and solar power curtailment.It is imperative to take immediate action to transform the energy sectors and build a brand-new energy system.Integrated energy projects includes different energy forms and characteristics vary.Time scales in dynamic processes have significant differences,while evaluation models,algorithms and indicators are also different.There are complex coupling relationships among various energy forms,which makes the assessment of integrated energy projects even more complicated.In the circumstances,comprehensive evaluation system is necessary.Scientific assessment can provide data support for investment,construction and operation of integrated energy projects.It also has great effects on the sustainable development of the energy projects.This thesis firstly analyzes the concept,infrastructure,key technologies,evaluation methods and main interests of the integrated energy projects,and establishes the theoretical basis for the follow-up research.Secondly,the thesis selects representative evaluation indicators based on potential benefits,advanced technology,environmental and social impacts.The index system consists of 3 hierarchies and 21 evaluation indicators.Thirdly,the thesis sums up traditional evaluation methods in the second chapter and concludes that the evaluation methods are not suitable enough for the evaluation of integrated energy projects.Combined with the characteristics of integrated energy projects,the comprehensive evaluation models of single plan and multi plan projects are constructed.For single scheme project,AHP entropy weight method is selected to determine the index weight.The ratio between actual value and target value is taken as the index score of schemes.For multi scheme projects,TOPSIS method based on interval theory is used to rank the alternatives.Finally,the thesis analyzes one integrated energy project located in Guangdong province as an example.According to the initial investment cost,maintenance cost and operation revenue of all kinds of equipments,the thesis analyzes the economic benefits of the integrated energy project and makes sensitivity analysis considering the potential change of natural gas price and photovoltaic subsidy.Through calculation,the thesis tests the rationality and operability of the evaluation index system.This thesis is applicable to the preliminary work(including planning,project proposal and feasibility study)of comprehensive energy projects.It can also be used for mid-term evaluation and post-evaluation of the project.