The Ternary Marginal Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of China’s Energy Import Growth

Energy is an important material basis for the survival and development of human society.China’s economy and society continue to develop,and its energy consumption also continues to grow.However,due to the uneven storage and distribution of energy resources and the existing mining and production technologies,domestic energy supply,especially fossil energy supply,cannot meet the energy demand.In order to solve the contradiction between domestic energy supply and demand,China’s energy import volume is continuously increasing.At present,China is already the world’s largest importer of coal,oil and natural gas,and its dependence on foreign energy is continuously increasing.In 2018,China’s dependence on foreign energy is about 21%,and energy import is of great significance to China’s energy security.In order to realize the stable growth of energy import in the future,we need to do more detailed and in-depth understanding and research on energy import trade,and analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of the growth of energy import,so that measures to promote energy import can be targeted.This paper refers to the trade ternary decomposition method,uses HS-6 code energy product data imported by China from 42 trading partners from 2008 to 2017,calculates the ternary marginal index of China’s energy import,discusses the characteristics of China’s energy import growth,and further uses the extended gravity model to empirically analyze the influencing factors of China’s energy import ternary marginal.The results show that China’s share of imported coal,oil and natural gas is increasing,with natural gas increasing the most and contributing the most to the increase of China’s share of energy imports.As a relatively clean fossil energy,the increase in the import share of natural gas is conducive to the upgrading of China’s energy structure.The share of coal imports increased second.Coal consumption has a great impact on the environment.It is a long way to go to reduce the utilization rate of coal.Oil import share is relatively stable with the smallest increase.In addition,the import of coal and natural gas is increasingly dependent on a few countries,and the concentration of the energy import market is detrimental to China’s energy import security.China’s energy import growth basically "wins by volume".The contribution rate of the quantity margin to the energy import growth exceeds 90%.The energy charter treaty,the economic freedom of the importing countries,and the storage-production ratio of natural gas all have a significant impact on the quantity margin.Actively promoting the signing of international agreements on energy,increasing investment in infrastructure in the importing countries,optimizing the business environment,and promoting the progress of natural gas development technology,especially shale gas development technology,will promote the growth of China’s energy import quantity.The margin of breadth has made little contribution to the growth of import of coal products and petroleum products,but it has made greater contribution to the growth of import of natural gas products,and the margin of breadth of China’s natural gas import has not exceeded 0.9,which indicates that the growth of natural gas import can be promoted by expanding the types of natural gas products imported.The promotion of the construction of "the belt and road initiative" and the construction of energy transportation channels have a significant positive effect on the margin of energy import breadth.China has insufficient bargaining power in the major energy import market,and the price of energy imported from major trading countries is higher than the average price of the country’s energy exports.The relative price of imported energy has an upward trend.The price index of imported coal and natural gas is rising from 2008 to 2017.The terms of trade are deteriorating.The import price of natural gas in 2017 is higher than the world average price.International relations have a significant impact on the price margin.The construction of "the belt and road initiative" is an important opportunity and channel for China to increase its influence in the energy market.