Study On Structural Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Energy Import In China

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,China's energy and resource constraints have become increasingly severe,therefore,the pressure to adjust the structure,to improve energy efficiency and to ensure energy security has been further intensified.China is now the world's largest energy consumer and importer.After sorting out the existing studies on energy import and its influencing factors,this paper conducts an in-depth analysis on the overall scale,commodity structure and market structure of China's energy import,which suggest that the import of three main fossil energy sources accounted for an determinant proportion of China's energy commodity imports for a long time,and the import scale of coal fluctuated.Moreover,the market structure of energy import has been constantly improved.In order to further explore the evolution trend of China's energy import structure,this paper,on the one hand,uses GM(1,1)grey prediction model to predict China's total energy import and the import volume of major fossil energy in the next five years,and analyzes the transformation of import commodity structure.On the other hand,use factors concerning national development,energy import and supply of trade partners,and price as independent variables,and oil,coal,natural gas energy imports from different trading partners as the dependent variable to build regression equation respectively,then determine import market structure change in the future according to the regression results.The conclusions are as follows: First,in the next five years,China's energy imports will still be dominated by oil,but the growth rate of natural gas imports will increase significantly,and the proportion of coal imports will slightly decline.Secondly,the import sources of China's main fossil energy show the trend of diversification,but the degree is different.Third,the United States may become an important source of China's energy imports.At the end of this paper,the author puts forward some suggestions for optimizing the energy import structure in China.