Research On Traffic Accident Mechanism Based On Berth Use Of Different Road Sections

Nowadays,people’s demand of transportation is ever-increasing along with the rapid development of our economy.As a result the contradiction between the existing urban roads and people’s demand is deepening.This contradiction directly leads to the emergence of traffic accidents and other serious problems,threatening people’s lives and property safety.At present,by analyzing the related characteristics of traffic flow and traffic accident with putting forward the targeted countermeasures,thus improving the road safety of the city and has become one of the main direction of urban road traffic safety research.Domestic and foreign scholars in this area have made a deep and comprehensive study,and gradually set their sights on the traffic flow short-term mutation caused by vehicle steering,changing lanes or dangerous driving behavior and traffic flow short-term mutation.Thinking this kind of mutation is the key factor that lead to traffic accidents.However,the current research mainly focuses on the sudden change of traffic flow caused by the driving behavior of vehicles inside the traffic flow,but ignores the fact that traffic flow will be forced to stop when a vehicle enters or leaves the roadside berths in urban roads,resulting in a situation similar to the aforementioned mutation.Therefore,this paper takes the sections with roadside berths of Haide second road,Keji south road and Zhaoshang road in Shenzhen city as the research object.After that this paper proposes three definitions: road section type,berths’ usage characteristics and berths’ disturbance characteristics,which are used to describe the characteristics of berths and its disturbance to traffic flow.Then collecting the three sections’ berths usage data and traffic accident data between September 2018 and February 2019,then constructing a variety of models in order to analyze the relationship between the usage characteristics,disturbance characteristics and traffic accident.Finally,basing on the models,this paper brings out that under the low probability of accident four berths characteristics with the scope of,and on the basis of suitable for all kinds of road traffic safety control suggestions are put forward.First,this paper proposed the definition of berths’ usage characteristics,berths’ disturbance characteristics and identification method of traffic flow disturbance caused by the berth usage.On the basis of data being collected and cleansed,normalized processing respectively constructed was used for all kinds of usage characteristics as the independent variables,as well as the disturbance characteristics as the dependent variables.Then the BP neural network model was built.It was proved that the models can converge and the results are reliable.With the model successfully built,the control variable method was used to analyze the change of the two disturbance characteristics.The results show that the variation of berth disturbance characteristics on different sections is quite different,which can be attributed to different section types.Secondly,the traffic accident data on each section were calculated,and a binary Logistic model was constructed with disturbance characteristics as the independent variable and traffic accident occurrence as the dependent variable to explore the mechanism of the change of accident probability with disturbance characteristics.It had been proved that,compared with the original blank model,the prediction ability of each model had been markedly improved after adding independent variables,and the prediction ability of traffic accidents had increased significantly.This indicated that the model construction was successful,and the selected independent variables can be used to predict the occurrence of traffic accidents.The results show that,for different sections,there are different disturbance characteristic thresholds,and when the two disturbance characteristics exceed the threshold,the probability of traffic accidents will increase.At the same time,the occurrence probability of all kinds of road sections has a great difference in the sensitivity of the two disturbance characteristics,so it can be considered that with the change of road section type,the change of disturbance characteristics has a different effect on the occurrence of accidents.Thirdly,combined with the research results above,this paper explored the value range of usage characteristics when the probability of traffic accidents is at a low level.This paper defined it as a safe range,and when the usage characteristics are within this range within a certain period of time,the road is in a low-risk state,otherwise it is in a high-risk state.The results show that different types of road sections have different safety ranges,and it can be considered that types of road sections have a decisive influence on the safety range of usage characteristics.Finally,based on the research results,respectively to road users,designers and road traffic safety related department some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward by this paper.In order to improve the level of urban road safety with berths and reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents.At last,this paper reviewed the whole research,analyzed the achievements and shortcomings of the research,and put forward the prospect of the future research.