Real-time Prediction Of The Passenger Flow Distribution And Guidance Research On Urban Pail Transit Line

Rail transit with its outstanding operation characteristics and can effectively drive thetrack along the region’s economic development, and at the same time, to meet the city scalebrought about by the surge in traffic demand and alleviate the urban road traffic pressure,construction of rail traffic becomes domestic and international big city traffic strategy choice,at present our country part of the urban rail transit network has been formed. Rail transitattracts large number of passenger flow on the lack of adequate travel and inducedinformation cases, passengers can only relying on subjective judgment choose travel betweenstarting point the optimal path, at the same time in the station from the access, upper andlower door and near the other transfer space cause blind crowded; lack of passenger flow inthe entire rail network in real-time distributed understanding, cause the subway operationefficiency and benefit both difficult to balance; This paper on how to use the existinghistorical passenger flow operation data, as well as the current time segment through the AFCsystem to detect the rail network in each station real-time traffic into and out of the station,through the correlation theory model algorithm and in the actual engineering feasible ideas topredict rail network short-term passenger flow distribution; how to reasonably theconstruction of rail transportation information guidance system to further enhance rail transitservice level, respectively do the following research:This paper based on passenger flow distribution characteristics of related theoreticalanalysis, to predict the future in short period of OD matrix table and carry on the distribution,related to the traffic distribution, traffic assignment model and algorithm are described andexamples of calculation. This paper has been applied to the city road traffic guidanceinformation system, the orbit traffic guidance information system needs analysis, and thendesigns the functional frame of.Finally taking Guangzhou rail transit case study, a detailed analysis of traffic ofGuangzhou city orbit traffic passenger flow distribution characteristics; utilize the TransCADtransportation professional software to establish the Guangzhou rail network geographic information model; based on link travel time and transfer penalty time parameter calibration,and has realized to Guangzhou rail network between two points at any designated the strokelength and travel time shortest path; through to the TransCAD software of multi path programmodule calculates the entire rail network of130stations between the shortest path length andthe shortest travel time matrix, matrix to obtain the shortest path through the correspondingvalue guidance information system fast query services possible; Different time periods toestablish the historical OD matrix table with the same attributes, and then through the AFCsystem detects the current time period inbound traffic, as the basic data to predict the nextperiod of time OD distribution, using TransCAD provide STOCH algorithm (Dial algorithm),realize the multipath passenger travel distribution.