| China’s national situation is complex,and there are many factors that constrain the efficiency of economic growth in the context of the objective socio-economic environment.Since China’s commodity housing reform,the real estate market has expanded rapidly,playing a strong role in boosting the development of the national economy and the improvement of the living environment.It has been shown that too much capital flowing into the real estate market will lead to distortion of the overall market investment structure in China,hinder the upgrading of industrial structure,excessive consumption of resources,environmental damage and inhibit the level of innovation,which is not conducive to high-quality economic growth.In the context of new development in the new era,studying the specific impact of real estate investment on urban green total factor productivity helps discern the real contribution of the real estate industry to the quality of China’s urban development and is conducive to achieving green growth of China’s economy.Based on the panel data of 286 prefecture-level and above cities in China from2006 to 2019,this study uses the SBM-GML index model to measure the green total factor productivity index of prefecture-level and above cities to measure the level of high-quality urban economic development,which is further decomposed into green technical efficiency and green technical progress.Firstly,we analyze the spatial and temporal evolution and spatial autocorrelation of urban green total factor productivity to identify the current level of high-quality urban economic development in China.Then,at the national level,we empirically analyze the role relationship between real estate investment and green total factor productivity and its decomposition index,as well as the spatial spillover effect.Finally,the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of real estate investment on green total factor productivity is studied empirically by dividing the country into four cities with different population sizes in the east,central and west as well as by jurisdictional population.The conclusions and recommendations are as follows.First,green total factor productivity,green technical efficiency and green technological progress in Chinese cities grew by an average of 2.8%,1.8% and 2.4%,respectively,during the study period.The average GDP growth rate during this period was about 8.8%,compared to which there is still huge room for improving the level of quality development of China’s economy.Second,there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of both green total factor productivity and its decomposition index in Chinese cities.In terms of spatial effects,there are also significant positive spillover effects of green total factor productivity and its decomposition index in Chinese cities.Third,at the national level,there are significant direct and spillover effects of real estate investment on green total factor productivity during the study period of the sample,and both of these effects are inhibitory.There is also an inhibitory effect of real estate investment on both green technical efficiency and green technological progress.It indicates that excessive levels of real estate investment have adverse effects on intra-regional management systems and resource allocation.Excessive crowding of investment in other industries also makes it difficult to optimize production processes and manufacturing skills within the region.Fourth,the regional level is basically consistent with the national level in that there are also positive spillover effects on green total factor productivity in the eastern,central and western cities,but there is heterogeneity in the extent of the negative direct and spillover effects of real estate investment on green total factor productivity in each region.In terms of the magnitude of the direct effect,it is the largest in the east and the smallest in the west,and in terms of the spillover effect,it is the largest in the center and the smallest in the west.Fifth,there is also heterogeneity in the impact of real estate investment on green total factor productivity in cities with different population sizes.Specifically,real estate investment in megacities,large cities,and medium cities has a negative impact on green total factor productivity growth in the region.Real estate investment in large cities has the greatest inhibitory effect on green total factor productivity growth,followed by megacities,then medium cities,and small cities real estate investment has a catalytic effect on green total factor productivity.There is a negative spillover effect of real estate investment on green total factor productivity in all cities of different population sizes.Specifically,real estate investment in megacities has the largest inhibitory effect on the growth of green total factor productivity in the surrounding areas,followed by small cities,then large cities,and the smallest in medium cities.The following recommendations are given in synthesis of the above findings:（1）There exists positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial spillover effect of urban green total factor productivity,which provides an important theoretical basis for the formation and development of urban agglomerations in China.We insist on developing green cities,starting from urban clusters,and wealthy cities with high level of economic development drive neighboring relatively backward areas to narrow the regional development gap.（2）The spillover effect of real estate investment has a strong inhibitory effect on green total factor productivity enhancement,and there are difficulties to curb and get rid of the undesirable spillover effect of real estate investment.By gathering polluting enterprises to a few cities,we can promote energy conservation and emission reduction through industrial clustering to improve management systems,rationalize resource allocation,and improve technological innovation.（3）The ratio of real estate investment to GDP in cities at all levels and above is 11.45% on average.Excessive investment in the real estate industry is not conducive to green total factor productivity improvement in cities,so it is necessary to reasonably control the scale of real estate investment,while focusing on the quality of real estate investment and reducing negative externalities of real estate investment. |
