Spatiotemporal Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Environmental Emergencies In China In The Past 30 Years

Environmental emergencies have the characteristics of suddenness,accumulation and high risk.Once it happens,it will have a bad impact on the regional development of various places.This will seriously hinder the implementation of the "Beautiful China" strategy and the advancement of the global sustainable development process.In order to better construct the environmental governance system and improve the modernization of governance capabilities,this paper studies the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of environmental emergencies.Using data on environmental emergencies from 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government（excluding Hong Kong,Macau Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province）from 1991 to 2018,analyze the spatiotemporal changes of environmental emergencies through descriptive statistical analysis,GIS visualization and standard deviation ellipses feature;Use Moran index and Moran scatter plot to analyze the spatial dependence of environmental emergencies in various provinces and cities;Use the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression（GTWR）model to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the effects of various influencing factors on environmental emergencies.The main conclusions are as follows:1)According to the changing trend of the number of environmental emergencies across the country,the period from 1991 to 2018 is divided into four stages: the period of high incidence（1991-1994）,period of fluctuation（1995-2002）,period of decline（2003-2006）and Stable period（2007-2018）.The center of gravity of environmental emergencies in 28 years is located in the southeast direction of China’s geometric center and moved in the southwestnortheast direction as a whole.The spatial distribution pattern of environmental emergencies changed in order from Northeast-Southwest,East-West and South-North.3)Environmental emergencies in various provinces and cities in China have significant spatial positive correlations in the two time periods of 1991-1994 and 2001-2014（except 2007）.In these years,the spatial agglomeration of environmental emergencies at the provincial level has gradually increased.During the 28 years,the development of environmental emergencies in various provinces has been uneven and dynamic.On the whole,the number of provinces belonging to “Low-Low” types increased and then decreased,concentrated in the western and northeastern regions;The number of “High-High” type provinces first decreased and then increased.The spatial distribution showed a trend of shifting from the east and south to the central and western regions.The number in the eastern and southern regions gradually decreased,and the number in the central and western regions gradually increased.The role of various provinces in environmental emergencies in spatial agglomeration is different and constantly changing.4)The effects of various influencing factors on environmental emergencies during the entire study period are dynamically changing.The impact of the level of economic development on environmental emergencies is shown as a "Negative-Positive-Negative" pattern;The impact of industrial structure on environmental emergencies is shown as a "Negative-Positive" pattern;The overall impact of pollution emissions on environmental emergencies presents a "PositiveNegative-Positive" pattern;Environmental letters and visits have a positive impact on environmental emergencies;The negative impact of the legal environment on environmental emergencies is gradually weakening;The negative impact of pollution control investment on environmental emergencies is gradually becoming apparent.5)The impact of various factors on environmental emergencies in different periods and provinces shows spatiotemporal heterogeneity.For example,the effect of economic development level on environmental emergencies in various provinces is mostly negatively inhibited in the early and mid-term of the research.In the later stage of the study,the regression coefficients are bounded by the "Hu Huanyong Line",the provinces with negative regression coefficients are distributed in the northwest of the boundary,and the provinces with positive coefficients are distributed in the southeast of the boundary;The industrial structure is mostly negatively affected in the early and mid-term of the research,and the positively affected regions are distributed in the west and northeast.In the later period,some provinces in the central region turned into a positive aggravating effect.