Research On The Dynamic Evaluation And Driving Factors Of Agricultural Land Ecological Security In Yellow River Delta

Under the background of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,land ecological security is related to all aspects of regional socio-economic development model transformation and ecological environment protection.The Yellow River Basin is the key zone of China’s regional economic transformation and development and ecological environment protection,and it plays an important role in national ecological environment protection and high-quality economic development.The Yellow River Delta is located in the key section of the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.It is located in the junction zone of river,ocean and land.The production and life of agricultural land is one of the key industries to maintain the Yellow River Delta.The development and utilization of agricultural land provides a material carrier for the industrial development of the Yellow River Delta and an important driving force for the regional sustainable development of the Yellow River Delta.Ensuring the ecological security of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta is not only the foundation for maintaining the sound and healthy development of regional land,but also the breakthrough to realize China’s agricultural transformation and promote the high-quality development of various types of land.Based on the ecological security theory and ecological footprint theory,this paper deeply analyzes the development and utilization of agricultural land and the ecological security level of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta with the help of modified ecological footprint model,carbon footprint model and ecological pressure index This paper discusses the driving factors of agricultural land ecological security in the Yellow River Delta from the three dimensions of society and ecology,and explores the positive and negative effects of each driving factor.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）The ecological footprint and carbon footprint are used to measure the development and utilization of agricultural land and the waste generated in the production process in the Yellow River Delta respectively.From 2006 to 2015,the ecological footprint value of various types of agricultural land increased to a certain extent.Among them,the ecological footprint value of various types of land followed by cultivated land,grassland,water area and forest land.Although the grassland footprint increased in 2020,However,the footprint and carrying capacity of various types of agricultural land in the region remain relatively stable,indicating that there is little difference in the development and utilization mode of various types of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta,but the gap between footprint and carrying capacity of various types of land has narrowed,indicating that there is a deficit trend in regional agricultural land.Compared with the growth of footprint,the carbon footprint of most counties（urban areas）is controlled below 15hm~2,indicating the tendency of sustainable development of regional agricultural production.The high-value areas of carbon footprint are concentrated in the central and eastern parts of the Yellow River Delta,and the carbon footprint of regional agricultural land remains relatively stable.（2）The ecological pressure index refers to the ecological security level of agricultural land.Through the evaluation of the ecological security status of agricultural land,it is found that the ecological pressure index of cultivated land in the Yellow River Delta showed a downward trend from 2006 to 2015,and the ecological security level remained between the generally safe and less safe areas,showing the uncertainty of cultivated land ecosystem,The risk of ecological security of agricultural land increases;The overall change range of forest land and water area fluctuated little from 2006 to 2020.The pressure index of forest land continued to decrease from 2006 to 2020,but the ecological pressure index of water area showed a certain growth trend;The grassland ecological security status has been maintained at the unsafe level,but the pressure index continued to decrease significantly from 2006 to2020,indicating that the grassland ecological pressure has a easing trend.The ecological pressure index of regional agricultural land continued to decrease from 2006 to 2015,and the ecological security level has rebounded.However,since 2015,the ecological pressure index has rebounded.The table shows that the regional agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta is still facing great risk of deterioration.In the spatial dimension,the ecological security of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta did not show obvious transfer characteristics.From 2006 to 2010,the ecological security of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta was relatively severe,and the areas with high ecological security level of agricultural land concentrated from the East and west sides of the yellow River Delta to the central region,It shows that the ecological security risk of agricultural land in the middle of the Yellow River Delta is large at this stage;From2010 to 2015,the ecological security level of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta has eased to a certain extent.The relatively safe areas are concentrated in the west of the Bohai Bay,the regional agricultural land is generally safe and unsafe,and the areas are concentrated on both sides of the jurisdiction of Dongying City.From 2015 to 2020,the number of unsafe areas of agricultural land ecological security in the Yellow River Delta has increased,and the ecological security of regional agricultural land is at risk.On the whole,the ecological security level of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta has a small increase in the ecological pressure index of regional agricultural land from 2006 to 2015.At this stage,the overall change trend of ecological security of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta is better.However,since 2015,the number of counties,cities and districts with regional insecurity level has increased,indicating that there are still great risks in the ecological security of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta.（3）The analysis of driving factors shows that at the level of economic factors,urban per capita GDP and rural residents’consumption expenditure have a positive effect on the ecological security of agricultural land;At the level of social factors,the development of urbanization has little impact on the ecological security of agricultural land;Carbon footprint has a negative effect on agricultural ecological security,indicating that the investment in agricultural technology is helpful to reduce the ecological security level of agricultural land;At the level of ecological factors,cultivated land,forest land and water area play a negative role in the ecological security of agricultural land in the Yellow River Delta.The production of cultivated land and forest land is closely related to the ecological security of agricultural land.The water area is related to the overall ecological security of the region.It can effectively promote the high-quality construction of agriculture in the Yellow River Delta and promote the high-quality development of regional social economy and ecological environment in harmony.