| With the further aggravation global climate warming trend,in the interests of effectively cutting back the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide,a great many of countries all around the world have correspondingly set up carbon emission policies,among which carbon trading regulation has become one of the effective means recognized by means of protecting environment.Many enterprises with carbon emission can meet the carbon emission constraint through the improvement of technology,equipment and operation.At the same time,as the consumer’s awareness continues to strengthen,the degree of low-carbon products will largely affect consumers’ purchase decisions,and consumers’ purchase intention of low-carbon products is the fundamental driving force for enterprises to conduct carbon emission reduction.However,although most enterprises have a strong intention to reduce emissions in their production and operation,they will switch to outsource their emission reduction business to a third party,i.e.emission reduction service provider,to carry out low-carbon emission reduction business in the face of multiple constraints such as capital and R＆D capacity of emission reduction technology.In reality because of asymmetric information,enterprise production decisions are not all rational,overconfidence,as a kind of irrational factors,will largely affect the production decision of supply chain carbon emissions,based on this,this article takes the following two angles to study the carbon trading regulation under consideration manufacturers and service providers overconfidence of the low carbon supply chain decisions.Based on the above background,this paper studies the upstream and downstream of the supply chain of manufacturers and emission reduction service providers under the carbon trading regulation.The decision-making subject of the system has emission reduction,carbon emission reduction payment price and output under different rational states,and explores the decision-making operation under the choice of two different emission reduction outsourcing modes.In the context of carbon trading,this paper establishes Stackelberg complete information dynamic game models under two different conditions: manufacturer’s complete rationality and overconfidence in the customization mode,and manufacturer’s complete rationality and overconfidence in the ordering mode,respectively,and analyzes the influence of overconfidence on the decision-making and performance of supply chain actors.It is found that the emission reduction per unit product of the rational manufacturer and the overconfident manufacturer in the customized model does not change with the change of the emission reduction price,and the overconfidence level of the manufacturer will affect the production decision,on the contrary,the overconfidence level of the manufacturer in the customized model has no direct relationship with the production decision.At the same time,this paper further considers the manufacturer’s overconfidence in the private cost information of the emission reduction service provider.Under the condition that the cost information of the emission reduction service provider is overconfident,a Stackelberg incomplete information dynamic game model is constructed with the demand information and the cost information overconfidence.To study the influence of overconfidence on the decision and profit of upstream and downstream enterprises in supply chain.The conclusion shows that the influence of overconfidence factor on the manufacturer’s carbon emission reduction price is positively correlated,that is,when the manufacturer estimates a lower cost coefficient and the emission reduction efficiency of the emission reduction service provider needs to be improved,the manufacturer will set a lower carbon emission reduction payment price to realize the contract design of emission reduction outsourcing. |
