| For a long time,constrained by the energy structure dominated by fossil energy and the extensive economic growth mode,China is facing practical challenges such as environmental pollution and carbon emission reduction.The power industry has the highest carbon emissions of any industry,and policymakers will implement a number of policies to achieve its low-carbon development goals.When carbon tax policy and RPS are implemented simultaneously in power market,there will be direct or indirect influence between different policies.At the same time,RPS and the carbon tax policy,as effective regulation policies to realize low-carbon energy transformation,whether it is able to realize the incentive regulation of power producers on the basis of playing the decisive role of "visible hand" and "invisible hand" in resources and allocation has become a key scientific issue in the process of carbon emission reduction of power industry.The implementation of incentive regulation can help to weaken information asymmetry to realize scientific regulation of power generation producers and effectively promote carbon emission reduction of power industry.Based on the above considerations,this paper conducts an in-depth study on the system dynamics model of carbon emission reduction incentive regulation,in order to analyze the effect of carbon tax policy and RPS on the incentive regulation of carbon emission reduction in the power industry.Firstly,the relevant theoretical basis is systematically sorted out,and the mechanism of carbon tax policy and RPS is elaborated.Secondly,the quantitative relationship of related variables is derived by static equilibrium analysis,and a system dynamic model of incentive regulation for carbon emission reduction is constructed based on this.Finally,the dynamic model of the incentive regulation for carbon emission reduction is simulated.On the one hand,on the basis of scientifically setting model parameters and initial variables,the incentive regulatory effects of RPS and carbon tax policy on carbon emission reduction are simulated,and on the other hand,the key parameters affecting the effect of carbon tax policy and RPS are analyzed sensitivity.The research results are as follows:(1)Under the multiple policies formed by RPS and carbon tax policy,the growth rate of thermal power generation gradually slows down.More importantly,the growth rate of renewable energy power generation is much greater than that of thermal power generation,which is conducive to improve the proportion of renewable energy power generation in the total power generation of power market and optimize the power supply structure.It is worth noting that in the early stage of the implementation of policies,thermal power manufacturers are not willing to invest in green power production,and the proportion of green power in the power market increases slowly.In the middle period of policy implementation,the increase of green certificate price increases the generation cost of thermal power producers on the one hand,and the income of green power producers on the other hand.Therefore,the proportion of green power increases rapidly at this stage.In the later period of the implementation of policies,the proportion of green electricity in the power market shows a state of slow increase.(2)The increase of carbon tax price and quota ratio has an adverse impact on the supply of thermal power producers,which can better restrict the growth of thermal power generation,improve the willingness of thermal power producers to invest in green power production,and help the carbon emission reduction of power industry.(3)Under the multiple policies formed by RPS and carbon tax policy,the cost filling of green power producers will reduce the output of green power,resulting in low market efficiency,which is not conducive to improving the technical progress level of renewable energy power generation in China and hindering the realization of the policy goal of promoting the development of renewable energy. |
PDF Full Text Request