Passenger Emergency Evacuation Model And Simulation Research In Metro Station Considering Individual Heterogeneity

With the continuous advancement of social and economic development and urbanization,the environment of densely populated places has become increasingly complex,which has brought unprecedented pressure to the evacuation of people in emergency situations.As a large enclosed building,metro stations often experience crowded passengers and stagnant passenger flow.In emergencies,there are too many safety incidents due to overcrowding and chaotic evacuation.How to deal with the evacuation of passengers in the station in an emergency is a key issue that needs to be solved urgently.Existing evacuation simulation models often ignore the individual decision making process,and in the case of large passenger flow,passenger flow simulation cannot balance accuracy and efficiency at the same time.Aiming at the above shortcomings,this paper constructs a two-layer model including the upper passenger path selection model and the lower pedestrian movement model to study the passenger evacuation problem in metro stations.The upper-level passenger route choice model is based on regret theory and expected utility theory.It analyzes the factors of passenger cognition and psychological characteristics,and combines random regret minimization and random utility maximization to construct a mixed random utility model.Subsequent consideration of the heterogeneity of the individual passenger’s decision rules in the path attributes is constructed to build herding behavior mixed random utility model,so that each type of passenger can consider both utility and regret decision rules when considering the same path attribute,and give two decision rules.This decision rule gives different weight coefficients.After SP survey data,based on the classification results of herd behavior,the HB-MRU model was constructed,and parameter fitting and model verification were performed,which confirmed that the model was more accurate in describing passenger evacuation routes.The lower level pedestrian movement model uses a hybrid model that combines dynamic network flow and system dynamics to study the evolution of passenger flow at transfer stations and provide certain theoretical and practical support for station passenger flow management.The transfer station system is divided into four sub-systems: human,machine,environment,and tube,and the dynamic network flow model is used to describe the status of the station environment elements;based on the relationship between the structural elements of the transfer station system,the passenger flow system flow diagram is drawn to construct the system dynamics Equation,design the calculation process of passenger flow numerical simulation.Based on the passenger flow data of a typical interchange station during peak hours,a passenger flow simulation model is established for analysis.The results show that the numerical simulation results of the hybrid model are basically consistent with the measured data,and the simulation efficiency is higher than the commercial simulation software Any Logic.The hybrid model can maintain the accuracy and efficiency of passenger flow simulation under the condition of large passenger flow during peak periods.Finally,on this basis,Java is used to build an experimental simulation environment,and based on the established double-layer model of metro passenger evacuation,the study is carried out by taking Hangzhou Qianjiang Road metro interchange station as an example.Collect various station data,assume that an emergency situation occurs,simulate the emergency evacuation of passengers in the station under the condition of large passenger flow,and obtain data such as passenger flow,passenger flow density,capacity of key station facilities,and passenger evacuation time.The model can provide theoretical and technical support for the layout of future metro station facilities,entrance and exit design and emergency evacuation.