Study On Subway Emergency Evacuation Selection Behavior Considering Spatial Cognition

For the past few years,the scale of cities has gradually increased and city roads are congested.In order to meet people’s demands for transportation modes,the subway has become a major mode of transportation for residents with its unique advantages.However,due to the confined space of the subway and the large flow of people,the emergency evacuation of the subway needs to arouse people’s attention.Furthermore,owing to people’s familiarity with the environment affect people’s behavioral decisions deeply during emergency evacuation,the survey method of cognitive maps in spatial cognition theory can quantify the pedestrian’s familiarity with the spatial environment,and introducing spatial cognition into behavioral decision-making rules can more truly reflect the behavioral decision-making process of pedestrian emergency evacuation.Based on behavioral decision theory,this study introduces spatial cognition level to study the selection behavior of subway emergency evacuation,and provides theoretical basis for subway emergency evacuation.Firstly,this study reviews domestic and foreign researches from three parts: spatial cognition,behavioral decision theory and emergency evacuation behavior.In one’s turn,the development history of random utility theory,prospect theory as well as regret theory are described in detail.Through comparative analysis,the mixed Logit model on the basis of random utility theory,the prospect theory model on the basis of dynamic heterogeneity reference point and the generalized random regret minimization model are selected as the research models.Secondly,Questionnaire survey is conducted in this study.In the first place,the factors influencing the decision makers’ exit choice behavior are determined,and then the questionnaire is devised.The questionnaire mainly includes the decision maker’s personal attributes,the choice of scenario scheme and the parameter calibration of the value function of prospect theory.The questionnaire is conducted a field survey in a subway station in Shanghai,and the data are processed and statistically analyzed.Finally,the mixed Logit model,the prospect theory model based on dynamic heterogeneity reference point and the generalized random regret minimization model are established by introducing spatial cognition level.In the process of prospect theory modeling,a prospect theory model based on static heterogeneity reference point was established,and the prediction accuracy of dynamic heterogeneity reference point model is found to be higher than that of static heterogeneity reference point.Then,considering the heterogeneity of decision rules,the decision makers are sorted in the light of different factors and levels.From the perspective of different types of decision makers in the same situation,this paper analyzes the selection behavior of different kinds of decision makers and determines the decision rules adopted by them.The results indicate that different decision makers have different decision rules in the same situation.In this study,a mixed decision model is established only based on the mixed Logit model and the generalized random regret minimization model because the prospect theory involves probability,and a comparative analysis is conducted.The results indicate that the calculated probability of the mixed decision model is closer to the actual choice probability,and the performance is better.