Analysis Of Land Use Change And Ecological Security Evaluation In Jiangyan District,Taizhou City,Jiangsu Province

This paper selects Jiangyan District as the research area,and on the basis of consulting a large number of documents,we understand the basic concepts of land use change and ecological security,research and analysis of land use changes and land ecological security status in Jiangyan District from2010 to 2019.The main steps are and conclusion:(1)Through the remote sensing image data of 2010,2015,and 2019,Interpret and classify the images through ENVI and ARCGIS software respectively,Then obtain the three-year land use data information of Jiangyan District,analyze from the quantity of land use,The following conclusions can be drawn: From the perspective of the number of changes,The order of overall change range is:grassland>woodland>construction land>water area>unused land>cultivated land;From the perspective of the transfer matrix,the overall transfer from 2010 to 2019 is mainly the mutual conversion between cultivated land,forest land,construction land,and water areas;From the information entropy of the land use structure in Jiangyan District,the land use structure of Jiangyan District in the study year is in a disordered state.The comprehensive index of land use in Jiangyan District shows a gradually increasing trend.(2)Combining factors such as social economy,natural environment,resource status,etc.,establish a land ecological security evaluation system based on the PSR model.Use analytic hierarchy process and entropy method to confirm the index weight,According to the calculation formula of the comprehensive value of ecological safety,then obtain the comprehensive value of land ecological security and the security value of each subsystem in Jiangyan District from 2010 to 2019.Analyze the 5grade results corresponding to each evaluation index: 2010-2013 is in a critical and dangerous stage and2013-2019 is in a good ecological state,and the overall ecological security of the region is showing a positive trend.(3)Based on the grey system theory,a GM(1,1)prediction model is established to simulate and accurately detect ecological security from 2010 to 2019,and then predict the change trend of the comprehensive value of land ecological security in Jiangyan District in the next five years.The comprehensive index of ecological security status is generally between 0.79-0.85 from the prediction results,which is basically in a good ecological state.