SDGs-oriented Land Use Evolution Model Construction And Scenario Simulation In The Yangtze River Delta

The Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)proposed by the United Nations are aimed at achieving all-round sustainable development goals of economic development,environmental friendliness,and social progress.Land resources are an important part of natural resources,and sustainable land use has become the core content of the sustainable development of human society.Regional land use evolution simulation is an important means of regional economic and social development planning,providing a scientific basis for land use planning,and promoting the sustainable use of land resources.In the context of the United Nations SDGs and China’s “Beautiful China” initiative,this article discusses the current status of sustainable development in the Yangtze River Delta,and simulates future land use evolution under different sustainable scenarios,which can provide scientific support for the formulation of sustainable land use planning.This article combines statistical analysis methods,system dynamics principles,neural network methods and cellular automata models to do the following research.First,the construction and analysis of the sustainable development indicator system in the Yangtze River Delta.Based on the United Nations SDGs indicators and the evaluation index system for the construction of “Beautiful China”,combined with statistical analysis methods,the indicators are localized and quantitatively calculated to build a sustainable development indicator system in the Yangtze River Delta.According to the sustainable development report issued by the United Nations,the index and dashboard of the index system of this article are established.The sustainability is divided into four different levels,and the sustainability in the Yangtze River Delta region in 2015 is discussed.The results show that: each index has spatial heterogeneity.The air quality factor is generally low,and the air quality problem needs to be improved urgently.The pollution control factor of the four provinces has no red grade,and the degree of pollution control is relatively high.The sustainability of infrastructure,medical and education factors is relatively high.Jiangsu and Zhejiang perform better,and the level of medical,education and infrastructure construction have developed rapidly.Second,a dynamic model of land use system that is oriented to SDGs is constructed.Comprehensively considering economic,social,environmental,policy and other factors,also combining with the constructed SDGs localization indicator system,we explore the causal relationship within variables based on system dynamics principles,comprehensive regression models,correlation analysis and other statistical methods.A land-use system dynamics model is built for SDGs and validated.By setting different scenarios,the quantity demand of land use in the Yangtze River Delta is predicted under multiple scenarios.The research conclusions are as follows: The area of cultivated land,woodland,grassland and water area under the environmentally friendly scenario has the smallest decrease in the four scenarios,and the increase of urban land is the smallest.Environmental protection has a certain inhibitory effect on the urbanization process.In the economic development scenario and the social progress scenario,the increase in urban land is larger,and the decrease in the area of other land types is higher.In the Yangtze River Delta region,the rate of change in the area of each area under the social progress scenario in Shanghai is higher than that in the economic development scenario.Oppositely,because Shanghai’s indicators per capita may are lower than other provinces,the degree of change required for Shanghai to reach the optimal level of the social progress scenario is stronger than that of the economic development scenario.Third,a multi-scenario simulation model of land use evolution that is oriented to SDGs is built.Based on the spatial heterogeneity of land use change,considering the quantitative demand constraints of land use under different scenarios,combining neural network models and cellular automata principles,a simulation model of land use evolution is constructed to provide a comprehensive analysis of land use evolution under multiple scenarios in the Yangtze River Delta.The simulation results show that in the baseline scenario,the area of urban land expanded near a typical metropolitan area is larger,and cultivated land is gradually eroded with the process of urbanization.In the economic development scenario,urban land expands more drastically,and the process of converting forest land into urban land is more significant.In the environmentally friendly scenario,the extent of urban land expansion is far less dramatic than the economic development scenario and the social progress scenario,and the area change rate of other land types is also lower.