Study On Disaster Vulnerability Assessment Of Shangluo Section Of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway Based On Kaiser Model

With the continuous improvement of China’s highway network,highway traffic accidents have become the number one threat to people’s lives and property safety.How to effectively prevent highway disasters and how to deal with them quickly after the accident is a very realistic problem.Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway,as the east gate of vehicles crossing Qinling Mountains in Shanghai,Anhui and Henan directions,plays a vital role in the smooth operation of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway.The handling speed and response time of sudden traffic accidents in Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway directly affect the traffic efficiency of Shaanxi section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway,so it is necessary and significant to explore the disaster vulnerability of specific sections at the daily management level.This paper summarizes the disaster characteristics that may be encountered in Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway,and summarizes the assessment methods of operational disaster risk events and the related theories of highway disaster vulnerability.On the basis of disaster formation,the systematic risk assessment index of disaster vulnerability in Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway is constructed.The risk events that may be encountered in the daily operation of Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway are classified from five categories: natural disasters,technical disasters,personal injuries,dangerous goods and other emergencies.The risk analysis and assessment of the five categories of disasters are carried out systematically,and the priority management level of disaster vulnerability is obtained.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Exploring the principle of highway disaster vulnerability.Firstly,starting with natural disaster vulnerability and traffic system vulnerability,the definition of vulnerability is understood,and the concept of highway disaster vulnerability is put forward according to the operation characteristics of expressway.Then,it analyzes the formation process of disaster vulnerability of expressway operation and the influencing factors of disaster vulnerability in Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway.(2)Establish disaster vulnerability evaluation index of Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway.First,through the consultation of the heads of various departments of the collective management office,discuss the risk events faced by the department in the operation process,and classify the risk events according to Kaiser model,and finally determine 28 kinds of risk events that may be faced in the operation process of Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway;Then,the questionnaire is made and the data is collected,which lays a good foundation for the disaster vulnerability assessment of Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway.(3)The vulnerability of the operation system in Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway is analyzed by using the disaster evaluation method based on Kaiser model.According to the survey data collected from the questionnaire,each risk event is evaluated and sorted by combining the risk matrix model,Borda sequence value method and other evaluation methods,and the top ten risk events are counted from three aspects of severity,risk value and Borda value respectively,so as to provide quantitative basis for the following targeted management opinions.(4)Using the quantitative evaluation results of Kaiser model,this paper puts forward some targeted daily management opinions on the daily emergency management of Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)in the daily management emergency management of Shangluo section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway,heavy fog,icing on the road surface of the jurisdiction,communication system failure,single-car accident on the expressway section and accidents involving more than two vehicles on the expressway section should be included in the key management items of the management office;At the same time,dangerous goods burning incidents,dangerous goods leakage incidents,tunnel power failures,fires on road sections under its jurisdiction,and surge in traffic volume at toll stations should be included in daily management projects.According to the risk events with high rank of value at risk and Borda sequence value,the corresponding risk management measures with practical guiding significance are put forward.The conclusion has reference value for daily emergency management.