Stochastic Cost-benefit Analysis For Energy Atmosphere System Of Yulin City

Coal-dependent cities are the cities dominated by local coal mining and processing industry.According to “National plan for sustainable development of resource-dependent cities(2013-2020)”,there are 63 cities identified as coal-dependent city in 2013 in China.It is indispensable to note that more than 50% of those cities are located in ecological fragile area.Cities in ecological fragile area with precarious ecologies have weaker self-healing abilities and take longer to recover from degradation and ecosystem succession by external disturbances than other cities.Therefore,it is more difficult to deal with air pollution in such cities.In coal-dependent city,coal plays a main role in promoting economic development,which is also the main reason for the gradual exhaustion of local coal and continuous air pollution.Under these circumstances,how to manage energy and atmosphere system of coal-dependent city located in ecological fragile area is an unavoidable issue that decision makers must face,which can help to balance the tension among resource utilization rationally,ecological restoration and pollutant emission control.In this study,Yulin City,a typical coal-dependent city in EFA in China,is selected as the case study.Through analyzing the energy and atmosphere system characteristics,environmental problems and system uncertainty factors in Yulin City,an interval minimax-regret coupled joint-probabilistic cost-benefit analysis method and a Copula-based stochastic programming method are developed for uncertainties reflection.Based on the two methods,the stochastic cost-benefit analysis models(IMJC-EAS model and CICS-EAS model)are formulated,respectively.Through contrastive analysis of multiple scenarios,the scheme with the highest profitability and lowest coal dependence index is identified,which can help decision makers manage energy and atmosphere system sustainably and robustly.Through contrastive analysis of 63 scenarios,the results of IMJC-EAS model show that when the primary energy output is increased by 5%,the secondary energy output is increased by 20%,and production is produced as planned,the system would achieve the lowest cost-benefit ratio([0.67,0.80])and the highest net present value rate([0.25,0.48])from 2020 to 2034.Through nine constraint-violation scenarios and six coal reduction scenarios,CICS-EAS model disclose that when primary and secondary energy output increases 9% and 13%,respectively,and industrial coal supply decreases 40%,coal dependent index of the system would be the lowest,corresponding system cost-benefit ratio would be [65.4,77.4] %,and system profitability could reach [29.3,53.0] %.