Study Of Metro Emergency Evacuation Choice Decision-Making Behavior Based On Latent Class Model

Urban rail transit is in a period of rapid development in China,and the relative management of metro facilities and strategy of metro emergency evacuation should be carried out simultaneously or even in advance.At present,most studies assume that individuals have the same physical,psychological characters,and decision-making rules,that is,the homogeneity of evacuees,which is obviously inconsistent with reality.As a matter of fact,individuals are heterogeneous,there are obvious differences in physical,psychological characters and decision-making rules.In order to solve the problem of the inconsistency of the hypothesis of individual homogeneity in previous studies,six kinds of psychological latent variables that are difficult to directly observe can be used in this study,such as panic,then the mental classes of evacuees were classified through latent profile analysis,a latent class model about the mental state of evacuees was established to explore the psychological heterogeneity of evacuees.The route choice result predicted by the model was compared with the actual choice results of evacuees among different psychological groups,meanwhile a latent class model of decision rules was established to analyze the effect of heterogeneity of decision rules on evacuation behavior of evacuees.Route choice preferences of evacuees with different decision-making rules is explored,the mechanism of evacuees’ decision-making behavior was understood,we hope that provide strong theoretical support for formulating more humane and rational metro emergency evacuation strategies.Firstly,the factors affecting emergency evacuation was determined through investigation by summarizing in domestic and foreign literature.Survey context included personal attribute,psychological variables and route attribute variables,we conducted a survey to investigate the intention to choose evacuation routes for multiple metro stations in Beijing and Shanghai.Secondly,we determined the observed variables that have a significant impact on the psychological latent variables of the evacuees through the measurement equation,and then a latent class model about the evacuees’ psychology can be established,the optimal number of evacuees to classify can be determined and the mental state of people among different psychological latent groups can be described.Multinomial Logit models were established for individuals belonging to different psychological latent class,and the differences in route choice preferences of different psychological groups were compared and significant influencing factors were analyzed.Finally,we explored the heterogeneity of decision-making rules for evacuated individuals,and we established RUM model,P-RRM model,μRRM model,RUM&PRRM latent class model,RUM&P-RRM&μRRM latent lass model,which were based on the results of the investigation of evacuation route choice intentions.Choice preferences of different groups who have different decision-rules was contrasted and analyzedThe results showed that passengers can be divided into 5 latent classes and there are obvious differences in choice preferences for 5 latent classes.The third class only tend to choose the shortest route,and the preference of the fifth class for the shortest route is similar to that for the uncrowded route,which indicate that it is more flexible for the fifth class to choose evacuation routes.Besides,the RUM&P-RRM&μRRM latent class model is significantly better than other models according to the fitting effort among all latent class model about heterogeneity of decision-making rules,and it has stronger explanatory power for reality,heterogeneity of decision rules of the evacuated population is indicated,and the decision-making rule for more than 60% of population conforming is P-RRM,which shows a strong pursuit of regret minimization,and there are obvious differences in the choice preferences of individuals conforming to different decision-making rules.People who conform to the RUM are not inclined to choose the longest route,people who conform to the P-RRM tend to choose compromise route with more balanced attributes.