Research On Evaluating The Cascading Triggering Probability Of Construction Safety Hidden Danger In Real-time

In order to control accidents in the construction process,managers have taken a variety of measures to achieve safety management,including inspection of potential safety hazards.Safety inspection can effectiv ely reduce the probability of accidents by early detection and correction of hidden dangers to control safety risks of construction project.The traditional inspection method is time-consuming and laborious,and the data is subjective and redundant,which hinders the improvement of inspection efficiency.Therefore,the relevant research uses some advanced technology and tools to optimize the defects of traditional methods from three aspect,including the data collection process,the inspection process and the inspection methodology of hidden danger.However,the existing research still regarded the accident as a single event and hadn’t considered the correlation between safety hazards and accidents.Moreover,the method of evaluating the cascading triggering probability of safety hazards was too complex to rectify the hazards in real time according to the inspection results,so that could not adapt to the increasingly complex engineering environment.Therefore,this paper used Fagan nomogram,a graphical calc ulation method of auxiliary clinical diagnosis,for reference.By analyzing the principle of this method,it was introduced into quantitative evaluation of cascading triggering probability of hidden danger.At the same time,the reliability of the method w as verified based on the simulation results of the actual data and case analysis,and a real-time assessment scheme of hidden danger was provided for the construction project.The main contents of this paper include: 1)According to the mathematical background and application scenario of Fagan nomogram,the decision-making steps in the clinical diagnosis process were analyzed,and the method was transferred to the quantitative a ssessment of the hidden danger probability;2)Based on the Cascading Theory and Human Reliability Analysis Technology,the nodes and the correlation of the original three types of human error causal network were integrated and a comprehensive causal netwo rk of human error was built.3)Based on the comprehensive causal network of human error,the probability of hidden danger was evaluated by using Fagan nomogram and Bayesian parameter respectively,and the reliability of Fagan nomogram was verified by comparing the visual calculation results and statistical indicators;4)Through Fagan nomogram,the posterior probability of two actual hidden danger was calculated,so as to put forward the improvement strategy of danger inspection.Several safety experts wer e also interviewed in focus groups to explain the reasons for the above calculation results and support the results of case analysis.Starting from the defects of the existing analysis and assessment methods of potential safety hazards,this paper taken th e human error causal network as the carrier and migrated the Fagan nomogram assisted clinical diagnosis to the real time evaluation of cascading triggering probability of hidden danger,and verified the reliability of the method according to the actual saf ety inspection data.On this basis,a complete framework was provided by taking the actual hidden danger as an example.This method can evaluate the probability of relevant hidden dangers in real time,which is helpful to realize control of accident,impro ve the safety management efficiency,and lay the foundation for the full-automatic safety inspection in the future.