Research On Coal Mine Accidents Key Hidden Dangers Mining And Safety Risk Prediction

Scientifically understanding the evolution law of coal mine safety risks and analyzing the key nodes in the evolution process of safety risks have important theoretical significance for ensuring coal mine safety production.In this dissertation,coal mine safety hidden danger data is used as the starting point to realize the quantitative assessment of coal mine safety hazards.A coal mine safety risk assessment model is constructed.The evolution process of coal mine safety risk is analyzed,then key hidden dangers of coal mine safety risk are excavated.Finally,a coal mine safety risk prediction method based on hidden Markov model is proposed.Combining with life cycle theory and the logistic function,a coal mine safety hidden danger evolution curve model is constructed,and the stages of the hidden danger life cycle are divided into 4 parts.A coal mine safety hazard risk evaluation index system is established.And the method for judging the life stage of coal mine safety hazards with fuzzy closeness is proposed.Finally,the quantitative assessment of single and all coal mine hidden dangers is realized.The main influencing factors including 24 factors in coal mine safety accident are analyzed based on grounded theory,and the coal mine safety risk evaluation index system is established.By using the Monte Carlo simulation method(MCS),analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is optimized in the weight determination process.And a method for determining the weights of AHP-MCS indicators based on the theorem of large numbers is proposed.Finally,the coal mine safety risk assessment model based on AHP-MCS coupled with TOPSIS is constructed by combining with the method of technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS).Based on the evolution logic of coal mine disaster accident chain of “coal mine safety risks-hidden danger-accident”,a complex network model of coal mine safety risk evolution is constructed by using complex network theory.The evolution network model is visually displayed and quantitatively analyzed in complex network quantitative indicators and basic types.A coal mine risk evolution spread model is established based on SIS,and the influence of unsafe personnel behaviors,management confusion factors,equipment factors and environmental factors on the spreading trend of risk factors are influenced.Through the network interference method,the key hidden dangers of the evolution network model are analyzed,including illegal operation,incomplete hidden danger investigation,non-implementation of technical measures,imperfect emergency measures,CO concentration exceeding the limit,monitoring system failure,gas concentration exceeding the limit,insufficient support strength,excessive coal dust concentration,hidden danger of water detection and discharge.On the basis of PSR theory,a coal mine safety management PSR framework is constructed,which condenses the synergy between coal mine safety hazards and coal mine safety risks.Finally,according to determining the key parameters of the model(state transition probability matrix,observation probability matrix,initial state distribution matrix),a coal mine safety risk prediction model based on hidden Markov is constructed.Taking the Lingquan coal mine as the engineering background,the hidden danger quantitative assessment model is used to evaluate the risk level of the coal mine safety hazard in the current month.The result shows that the displayed risk level of hidden danger is yellow risk.The AHP-MCS coupled TOPSIS model is used to evaluate the coal mine safety risk level of Lingquan Coal Mine in July 2020.The result shows that the safety risk level is the orange risk.The constructed hidden Markov model is used to predict the coal mine safety risk of Lingquan Coal Mine in November 2020.The research results show that the risk level of Lingquan Coal Mine in November is orange risk,which is consistent with the actual production situation of the mine in November.Finally,the safety management advices of Lingquan coal mine are proposed from intensified application of information systems,effective implementation of safety production systems,and steady improvement in the level of intelligence.This dissertation contains 28 pictures,34 tables,and 141 references.