Research On The Coordination Of Water-energy-food Coupling System In Cities Along The Lower Yellow River

Water,energy and food are the indispensable basic resources for the sustainable development of our society,and they are also the important themes in the research field of regional sustainable development.As an important part of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,has a pivotal position in China’s socio-economic development and ecological security.With the rapid progress of industrialization and urbanization,the contradiction between water,energy and food conversion mechanism,influence driving mechanism,mutual development of subsystems,social and economic development,and low quality of development in the lower Yellow River become increasingly prominent.Therefore,the coordinated study of the coupled system of water energy and food in the lower Yellow River is of great significance to the regional resource conservation and sustainable development of the lower Yellow River.Based on the conceptual framework of Water-Energy-Food Nexus,combined with the concept of coupled and coordinated development,this paper establishes the per capita water and energy consumption with the goal of Water-Energy-Food rain coupled system coordination and the response criteria of water subsystem,energy subsystem and food subsystem using the analytical hierarchy process,entropy method and coupled and coordinated analysis.The coupled Water-Energy-Food system of cities along the lower Yellow River from 2009 to 2018 was evaluated.In addition,based on the theory of system dynamics,the water energy food system dynamics model of the lower Yellow River is constructed by using Vensim software,and the system coupling coordination degree of cities along the lower Yellow River from 2019 to 2035 is simulated and predicted.Finally,a Water-Energy-Food coupling system threshold analysis was conducted in Zhengzhou City as an example to explore the development demand thresholds of each system under different coupling coordination degrees.It is found that(1)The coupling coordination degree of Water-Energy-Food system in the lower Yellow River is on an increasing trend,reaching0.775 in 2018,which is an intermediate level of coupling coordination.(2)The comprehensive evaluation index of food subsystem in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is gradually increasing,reaching 0.675 in 2018,which is the highest among the three subsystems.(3)Using the system dynamics model simulation,it is found that the relative improvement of scenario 5 is the largest,and its coupling coordinated development degree is0.895 in 2035,reaching the"quasi high quality coordinated state",which is nearly 15.5%higher than the current situation of 0.775.(4)Under the goal of high-quality and coordinated development of the system in 2035,the water demand threshold of Zhengzhou is 3.022.4billion m~3;the wastewater discharge is 117,600 m~3;the energy demand is 26.967 million tons of standard coal;the food demand is 3.178 million tons.The proportion of agricultural water used in 2035 will not be less than 87.2%and 21.5%.