Impact Of Low-Carbon Development Policy On Energy Economy In Jilin Province Based On CGE Model

Since the reform and opening up,especially after joining the WTO,China’s economy has developed rapidly.However,due to the extensive use of fossil energy,environmental problems have become more serious,especially around 2015,when a wide range of smog weather occurred throughout the country,so the development of low carbon Economy and reducing the emission of air pollutants are the inevitable choices at present.The development of a low-carbon economy requires the central and local governments to issue relevant energy-saving and emission-reduction policies to guide the standardized and rapid development of low-carbon industries.The experience of Western countries has shown that carbon tax policy is an ideal economic tool that can effectively improve the quality of the environment.Due to the different economic structures and development levels in different regions of our country,it is necessary to consider the impact of differences in different regions on the carbon tax rate,that is,it is necessary to use provincial regions as the research object.As a representative of China’s heavy industry provinces,Jilin Province has historically been polluting more severely,so this article uses this as a regional research object.Based on the IO table and statistical yearbook of Jilin Province in the past year,the macro social accounting matrix and micro social accounting matrix of Jilin Province were compiled respectively,and a static CGE model was constructed according to the actual situation and research needs.Finally,use the GAMS software program to simulate and analyze the impact of the implementation of different carbon tax rates on the macro economy of Jilin Province,the output of each department,the commodity price of each department and energy consumption.The simulation analysis results of these different scenarios have reference value for the implementation of low-carbon economic policies in the implementation of carbon taxes,the development of low-carbon energy,and the promotion of people’s livelihood and well-being.This article uses value-added tax as the base period tax rate of the carbon tax in Jilin Province,and on this basis,increases 3%,5%,10%,15%,and 20% respectively to explore the impact of the carbon tax on the macro-economy of Jilin Province.The main conclusions are The following conclusions:(1)The higher the tax rate,the greater the negative effect on the economy,and under the same tax rate,the decline in household consumption and household income is the same;(2)Carbon tax will affect the output of various sectors and increase Departmental commodity prices.A carbon tax will reduce the output of the five sectors of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and sideline fishery,extractive industries,manufacturing,energy production and supply,and construction,but it will increase the output of the service industry.Under the same carbon tax rate,energy The production and supply industries are the most negatively affected by carbon taxes;(3)The levy of carbon taxes will affect energy consumption,but the impact is small.In order to speed up the development of low-carbon economy in Jilin Province,the recommendations are as follows: First,optimize the industrial structure and promote the development of low-carbon economy;second,accelerate the adjustment of energy consumption structure and build a low-carbon energy system;third,improve the level of energy management and utilization;Fourth,impose a high carbon tax on some highcarbon products;fifth,adopt a carbon tax rebate method;sixth,increase the promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and attract and train relevant talents.