Analysis Of The Effects Of China’s Environmental Tax Policy Based On CGE Model

In recent years,severe global warming and environmental pollution problems have caused huge economic losses and human health crises worldwide.In order to deal with the imminent environmental problems,China has formulated a series of plans on energy conservation and emission reduction.At the same time,China has implemented the Environmental Protection Tax Law since January 1,2018,which levies taxes on pollutant emissions with stringent standards.However,there are few related studies on the effects of pollutant emission reduction and impact on economic development after the implementation of environmental tax policies.For this reason,this paper intends to use the CGE model to explore the policy effects of environmental taxes.First,this paper uses the 2017 input-output table to compile a social accounting matrix(SAM)that includes 17 production sectors.Then,a multi-sector static computable general equilibrium model(CGE)is established based on SAM.The CGE model includes a five-level production function that divides energy into fossil energy and electric energy.Fossil energy includes coal,oil,and natural gas.Electric energy includes thermal power and other clean power.In this model,carbon tax and environmental tax,which includes 13 major taxable pollutants are designed and six scenarios are developed.Finally,this paper simulates and analyzes the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of six different tax rate scenarios.The simulation results show that levying environmental tax and carbon tax can help reduce emissions of most pollutants.Among them,carbon dioxide,sulfur dioxide,nitrogen oxides,smoke and dust emissions decreased significantly;while chemical oxygen demand,ammonia nitrogen,total phosphorus and other water pollutants decreased slightly.At the same time,it also has a negative impact on macro-socioeconomic variables such as GDP,social welfare,and total corporate income.Compared with the basic scenarios without environmental tax and carbon tax,the six scenarios have reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 0.056%,0.275%,0.542%,1.508%,3.139%,and 6.131%;sulfur dioxide emissions have decreased by 0.281%,1.394%,2.77%,1.48%,3.764%,and 7.427%;GDP decreased by 0.009%,0.049%,0.104%,0.115%,0.272%,and 0.582%.The result also shows that the high energy-consuming and highly polluting industries will suffer higher output loss,but the output value of the service industry and clean energy industry has increased slightly.The collection of environmental tax and carbon tax is helpful to the transformation of industrial structure,but has a limited effect.