| After the second industrial revolution,the global industrial economy has developed rapidly,followed by pollutants produced in industrial activities.These pollutants were collected into industrial cities soil through various ways,and the resulting soil pollution problems had aroused widespread concern.There were many kinds of pollutants in the soil of industrial cities,so it was one-sided to evaluate the pollution situation of a certain kind of pollutants.Taking soil ecology as the receptor,it was particulary important to study the impact of as many kinds of Compound Pollutants(CPs)on soil ecology.In addition,previous studies were mainly limited to the past or present soil pollution,but ‘‘preventing problems before they happened’’ was better than “solving probelems after they happened”.Therefore,establishing a model to predict the future concentration of pollutants in industrial city soil and early warning of ecological risks of CPs could provide policy makers with reserved time and targeted suggestions.This study took Changchun,a typical industrial city,as the research object.Changchun has heavy industries such as automobile manufacturing,chemical manufacturing,etc,and has early industrialization and high urbanization rate.The whole industrial activities in Changchun in recent decaded could be regarded as a dynamic pollution source,which was the precondition for establishing the relation model between pollution source activities and soil pollutants accumulation.In this study,44 pollutants(13 Heavy Metals(HMs),16 Polycyclic Aromic Hydrocarbons(PAHs),7 Polychlorinated Biphenyls(PCBs),and 8 Organochlorine Pesticides(OCPs))were detected,and the pollution degree of Single Pollutant(SP)and CPs were evaluated by Effect Factor(EF)and Pollution Load Index(PLI).Then,the Contamination Security Index(CSI)was used to evaluate the ecological risks of CPs.The relation model between pollution source activities and soil pollutants accumulation in Changhchun was established.The dynamic trend of pollution source activities in Changchun from 2019 to 2040 was predicted with the help of classical model in economics.The accumulated concentration of soil pollutants in the next 20 years was calculated,and the ecological risk of CPs in Changchun soil was early earned.The main research contents were as follows:(1)The average EF values of Cd(6.07),Flt(5.62),Pyr(5.10)and Ba A(5.07)among the 44 pollutants were greater than 5,and these four pollutants in Changchun soil were seriously disturbed by the outside world;(2)The average PLI value(2.07)of compound PAHs((?))was the highest among all CPs,which meant this kind of CPs was the most obviously affected by human activities;(3)Based on the effect range value of pollutants,the CSI values of five types of CPs in Changchun soil were studied.The results showed that more than half of the soils in Changchun were under moderate CSI-(?) risk level or above,which was mainly contributed by Phe,Flt,Pyr,Flu,Acy,Ant,Chr and Ba A;(4)Through the geographical distribution map of CSI-(?) in Changchun soil,it was known that thw highest risk in Changchun soil was concentrated in the southwest corner,which was the core area of Changchun with dense industry and heavy traffic;(5)Under the three scenarios,the concentrations of soil pollutants in Changchun soil from 2019 to 2040 were predicted,and the ecological risk was early warned.The results indicated that if effective measures were not taken,the average CSI-(?) of Changchun soil would reach a very high risk in 2025 or 2030,and the average CSI-(?) would reach a high risk in 2025.This study provided theoretical basis for soil CPs ecological risk assessment;provided a new idea for the prediction of soil pollutant concentration;provided support for ensuring soil ecology and human health safety in Changchun;provided reference for decision makers in soil pollution management and prevention and control. |
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