Evaluation Of Carbon Emission Rights In Power Industry Based On Short-Term Carbon Production Model

At the 75 th Session of the United Nations General Assembly on September 22,2020,Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that China will increase its nationally determined contributions,adopt more effective policies and measures,strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Under the vision of strive to achieve this goal as scheduled,and electric power industry as a carbon emitters in our country and important player in the carbon market,the valuation of carbon emission rights research is significant extremely.This paper firstly defines the concept of carbon emission rights,points out the five properties of carbon emission rights,and discusses the theory of "tragedy of the Commons" theory,scarce resources theory,free market environmentalism theory and other related theoretical basis,respectively expounds the significance of the theory to the evaluation of carbon emission rights.Then the paper introduces the construction of carbon emission trading market and the operation of domestic carbon emission trading pilot market,summarizes the problems exposed in the pilot work at the present stage,and analyzes the development of carbon emission rights in China’s power industry.Although after nearly a decade of pilot reform,there is still much to be improved,which establish a reasonable and fair of carbon emission rights pricing mechanism is the foundation of conducting carbon trading,appropriate carbon emission rights valuation model for the parties involved in market transactions which has considerable reference value.So the paper aims at the existing valuation method of carbon emission rights to make a comparison,evaluation of the traditional evaluation methods in the evaluation of right of carbon emissions limits,and mainly introduced fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the shadow price method and real options method and expand evaluation methods,such as putty-clay vintage model,on the basis of the applicability of the evaluation methods for the analysis and comparison,I think use putty-clay vintage model can better make reasonable assessment about the carbon price from the perspective of carbon production enterprises.The model will be carbon emissions as a production factor for production and operation of enterprise,starting from the enterprise main business in all kinds of business cost,to comprehensively consider the cost of enterprise,excess emissions of carbon emission rights purchase costs and could face a fine of costs,in addition to the carbon emissions of other variable cost and fixed cost,get adjusted total production cost,the profit function is constructed to study the value of carbon emissions for power generation enterprises,more in line with the actual power generation enterprises production and management state,reflected the strong practicability and expansibility,it is helpful for enterprises to better and efficient production plan.At last,three power generation enterprises are selected as the object of case study and case enterprises are large power generation groups,more than power generation assets all over the country provinces,the tradition such as thermal power generation is still dominant in the actual power generation,they have strong representative in the electric power industry.At the same time,the validity and applicability of the model are verified.The evaluation results are close to the European ICE Futures Exchange price,which illustrates the rationality of the model.It is also expected to provide some useful inspiration and reference for the pricing evaluation of carbon trading market.