Risk Assessment And Application Of Toxic Gases And Dangerous Chemicals In Road Rransportation Leakage

Since the reform and opening up,with the continuous development of the economy and society.The production,transportation and use of hazardous chemicals in China are increasing rapidly at a rate of more than 10% every year.The number of dangerous chemical logistics enterprises has increased and the scale has gradually expanded.However,China’s hazardous chemicals industry has a very obvious feature: the distribution of production and sales is very uneven.According to statistics,more than 95% of hazardous chemicals in the country need to be transported off-site.The toxic gases in hazardous chemicals are far more harmful than other types.Once a transport leakage accident occurs,the degree of disaster far exceeds that of other types of dangerous chemicals road transport accidents.Therefore,the risk assessment model and application of the road transportation leakage risk of toxic gases and hazardous chemicals carried out in this paper have important practical significance and urgency.To comprehensively and scientifically prevent and control the leakage risk of toxic gas and hazardous chemicals by road transportation.Study the probability and consequences of toxic gas road transport leakage accidents.Build a toxic gas road transport leakage risk assessment model.This paper uses cusp catastrophe theory,safety statistics,binomial logistics regression analysis,numerical simulation,logical reasoning and other theories and methods to study the leakage risk of toxic gas hazardous chemicals road transportation from two aspects:leakage probability and accident consequences.The main content of this study is:(1)In-depth analysis and summary of the research status of the leakage and diffusion models and risk assessment models of hazardous chemicals at home and abroad,and the research significance of this article.Based on the cusp catastrophe theory research and analysis of hazardous chemicals road transport accident mechanism.By consulting the historical data and related literature of the Chemical Accident Network,a total of 2,075 accidents involving the use of tank trucks to transport dangerous chemicals were compiled.Summarize the accident characteristics of China’s dangerous chemical tanker road transportation in terms of time,space,accident shape,highway grade and accident cause.(2)Through accident sorting and coding,import it into the binomial logistics regression model in SPSS 22.0 for calculation and use this to establish the probability model of road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals.Combined with the relative risk ratio inbinomial logistics regression analysis and the dynamic index evaluation method,the probability of leakage accidents of road transportation of hazardous chemicals is revised.(3)According to the characteristics of the accident,the toxic gas leakage accidents of road transportation of tank vehicles are divided into three types: continuous leakage at moving points,continuous leakage at fixed points and instantaneous leakage.Using COMSOL software to carry out numerical simulation on typical leakage accident scenarios.Obtain the chlorine gas concentration range with time and determine the lethal area of chlorine gas.Calculate the number of deaths from the fatal area and the population density of the leak to get the severity of the accident consequences.Combined with the leakage probability of road transportation of hazardous chemicals,a risk assessment model of road transportation of hazardous chemicals based on fuzzy logic was established.Comprehensive assessment of the risk of road transport leakage of toxic gas hazardous chemicals.Taking the transportation liquid chlorine of a transportation company as an example,a risk assessment was carried out for this transportation to verify the feasibility of the model.