Study On Evaluation And Prediction Of Ecological Land Construction In Ningbo

Land is the space carrier of ecological civilization construction.Ecological land construction is at the foundation of ecological civilization construction,and it is the only way to achieve harmonious development between man and nature.As the core city in the south wing of the Yangtze River Delta and an important port city along the coast of China,Ningbo is developing rapidly with resource bottleneck constraints and environmental pressures increasing,and the contradiction between development and protection of Ningbo is becoming increasingly prominent.It is particularly urgent and important to improve the ecological land construction of Ningbo.Therefore,the study clarifies the connotation of ecological land construction,analyzes the current state of land use and ecological problems in Ningbo,constructs an evaluation index system of Ningbo’s ecological land construction around land resources,environment,and economy subsystems,and uses the entropy weight TOPSIS model to evaluate ecological land construction level of Ningbo from 2007 to 2017.Then based on the system dynamics method,combined with gray prediction,trend extrapolation,linear regression and other statistical models,the study uses Vensim software to build a system dynamic model of ecological land construction in Ningbo,simulates 4scenarios,predicts and judges the state of ecological land construction in Ningbo in the next8 years,and evaluates the level of ecological land construction in Ningbo from 2018 to2025.This will enrich the theoretical framework and evaluation system of ecological land construction,and provide a scientific reference for policy formulation and spatial planning of land.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)From 2007 to 2017,the construction level of ecological land in Ningbo showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing.From 2007 to 2010,the effect of ecological land construction in Ningbo was not satisfactory,and ecological land construction level was low and showing a downward trend.Since 2011,the objectives and measures of ecological land construction of Ningbo have been continuously refined and deepened,and the level of ecological land construction in Ningbo has been significantly improved.From the perspective of subsystems,the level of land resources,land environment and land economy have all been improved to varying degrees.Relatively speaking,the level of land resources has increased less and the risen slowest;the land environment level fluctuates greatly and its improvement is the most unstable;the land economy level has improved rapidly,and the growth situation has been relatively stable.(2)The simulation of ecological land construction of Ningbo from 2018 to 2025 shows that the level of ecological land construction in Ningbo has consistently maintained an upward trend under different scenarios,and the increase rate of ecological land construction level has gradually slowed down since 2023.In the long run,the comprehensive optimization model with adopting regulatory actions such as industrial structure adjustment,land change control,resource efficiency and pollution treatment level improvement is the most beneficial to the improvement of ecological land construction level in Ningbo.The regulation effect of the resource and environment priority model is second only to the comprehensive optimization model.The economy priority model is superior to the trend continuation model in the early stage,but due to the slow improvement of the ecological land construction level under this model,the level of ecological land construction of the economy priority model lags behind which of the trend continuation model by 2025.From the perspective of subsystems,in terms of land resource level and land environment level,the priority of four scenario modes is resource and environment priority mode> comprehensive optimization mode> trend continuation mode> economic priority mode;in terms of land economy level,the priority of four scenario modes is comprehensive optimization mode> economic priority mode> resource and environment priority mode> trend continuation mode.(3)The policy enlightenment for improving the level of ecological land construction in Ningbo: The level of resource protection in Ningbo is low,the environmental quality is not good,the ecological degradation in some areas is serious,the industrial structure is not green and advanced,and the power for industrial transformation and economic growth is insufficient.In the field of land resource,it is necessary to increase the intensive use of resources,strengthen the protection of natural resources,and accelerate the adjustment of energy structure.In terms of land environment,it is necessary to further promote the three major battles of gas governance,water governance and soil governance,improve the quality of the urban atmosphere,water and soil environment,promote comprehensive land remediation in the whole region,and accelerate the restoration and protection of the ecological environment.In terms of land economy,it is necessary to accelerate the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and strengthen the support of science and technology and talents.