Study On The Development Measurement Of Ecological Civilization System In China And Its Application

China’s economy has made great-leap-forward development since the reform and opening up.With the growth in the living standard as well as the environmental protection consciousness enhancement,the impact of economic growth on the environment has attracted more and more attention,sustainable development had emerged,while human society is entering sustainable development phase represented by new ideas such as circular economy,ecological economy and so on from the post-industrial era of 21st century.Based on Chinese reality,this idea of ecological civilization has come into view,and was elevated to the national strategic level,what’s more,strengthening ecological civilization construction was written for the first time in the five-year national development plan in 2015.Thus it can be seen that ecological civilization construction has become an important component of the Chinese dream.Based on the background of vigorously promoting the construction of ecological civilization,this paper establishes the evaluation indicators of ecological civilization from the viewpoint of sustainable development,and presents evaluation measurements respectively with evaluation needs,quantificationally analyzes China’s 31 provincial and different areas’ development of ecological civilization from 2011 to 2015(Twelve-Five planning period),summarizes their developing patterns and characteristics,in order to clarify ther status,and find the advantages and disadvantages of the development of ecological civilization,to provide a theoretical basis and scientific guidance for the effectively construction of ecological civilization.To be specific,the research work of this paper is mainly embodied in the following six aspects.(1)On the basis of defining the connotation and constituent elements and development goals of ecological civilization system,bluilds an index system of ecological civilization system contains 68 indicators from ecoromy,environment,resource,society and institution and so on.(2)Dimensionless processing is one of the most important factors influencing the comprehensive evaluation result.The research provides a new nonlinear dimensionless method based on the extremum method,called segmented dimensionless method induced by ranking percentage,which can reduce the imbalance of dimensionless data caused by outliers.And analyzes the characters and sensitivity to outliers and segment hierarchy of this new nonlinear dimensionless method.Then expands the segmented dimensionless method induced by ranking percentage to sample training based induced segmented dimensionless method in order to observe the data changes continuously.(3)By comparing the general concerns of each evaluation indicator in the 31 provinces,this paper puts forward the analyzing method about the concern extent to each construction aspect of ecological civilization system from the data changing tendency.Analysis shows that the current focus of ecological civilization system construction aspects in turns are the eco-economy,ecological society,ecological institution,ecological resource and eco-environment.Among which,the construction of ecological resource and eco-environment is relatively weak,and more attention needs to be paid.(4)The research puts forward a measuring method with amended characteristics under the evaluation demand that data can be revised.Take the 31 provinces as research objects,analyzes their ecological civilization development in the evaluation period of 2011-2015.Furthermore,the research analyzes the performance of each construction aspect of ecological civilization,and gives related conclusion.(5)In the context of without considering the continuous amended background of evaluation information,the research builds an ecological civilization development index from the perspective of continuous observation indicator data and the ecological civilization construction result.According to the classifications of four major regions,seven areas and ten economic zones,the research compares each subregional ecological civilization development index and each single index.(6)According to the provincial ecological civilization development index,this paper comprehensively analyzes the foundation and growth rate of ecological civilization construction in 31 provinces,and divides the 31 provinces into four types:stable,saltatory,growth and weak,and analyzes the characteristics of each development type(7)In order to study the further development potential of ecological civilization,the research gives a trend prediction method based on stochastic simulation.Using the indicator data of 2015 as a benchmark,the research confirms the indicators’ possible value range in the future through comparing their amplitude of variation from 2011 to 2015,and then predicts the average of ecological civilization development potential of 31 provinces and the possible development range using the stochastic simulation method.Furthermore,predicts the potential of each construction aspect.The research studies several measurement methods according to special evaluation demand to measure the development level of ecological civilization system,which can also be used to evaluate similar complex systems for their mathematical characteristics make them high expandability.