Research On Fire Evacuation Risk Assessment Of Support Platform Personnel Based On HCL-HRA Model

The marine support platform is a high fire risk and densely populated marine residential area,especially the safety of evacuation in fire scenarios is the focus of attention.The risk assessment of the marine support platform is of great significance.It can provide a reference for the risk design of the marine support platform and ensure the safety of the platform occupants in the operation and emergency phases.The current research on fire risk assessment of support platforms mostly uses qualitative or semi-weighted methods,lacks specific research on the evacuation of fire personnel,and rarely studies potential risks in safety-critical systems and the impact of human factors and organizations.In the known risk assessment model,it is difficult to both construct a complex Bayesian network and quantify the impact of human and organizational factors.On the one hand,human and organizational factors has a large number of uncertain factors that increase the complexity of accident quantification;on the other hand,risk assessment is also Faced with the problem of incomplete statistical data,this has brought great difficulties to the analysis and risk assessment research of Dingli.It is of great significance to understand the impact of fire on emergency evacuation,explore the mechanism and path of risk transmission of human factors and organizational factors,and apply the fire risk assessment method to support platforms.First,this paper proposes an improved hybrid causal logic model for risk assessment of complex systems including human and organizational factors.In terms of qualitative analysis of accident development models,the event tree and accident sequence diagram are used to construct the risk path and the final risk scenario,and the safety barrier theory is used to construct the critical event failure mode fault tree,and the human error classification is based on the maritime field The model constructs the human and organizational factors bayesian network model;in terms of model definition,it proposes an automatic calculation process that uses the evidence theory and the node state distance function to allocate the Bayesian network conditional probability table,And design and use the Success Likelihood Index method to establish a fault tree and bayesian network re-refinement interface,improve the hybrid causal logic model,make it a systematic and efficient risk quantification framework,and have risk modeling in engineering practice And quantitative ability.Secondly,fully consider the impact of fire on personnel evacuation,use FDS software to simulate fire conditions,combined with Exodus software personnel evacuation simulation,analyze and calculate the danger time and the expected number of casualties for fire emergency evacuation,that is,a method for quantitatively evaluating the consequences of fire disastersFinally,taking the N500 semi-submersible living platform as an example,the hybrid causal logic model based human risk assessment method designed in this paper is used to determine the probability of possible fire accident scenarios,combined with the results of numerical simulation of fire consequences to quantify the fire evacuation risk,and carry out Sensitivity analysis of typical events.