| To promotes regional development and utilization and sustainable ecosystem development;and provides reference for the geo-located relationship and scientific use of land resources in urban construction,the calculations and analysis of the changes in land use and the value of ecosystem services in the research area were carried out,and the future change trend were predicted.It based on the land use data from 2009-2019,the latest research results on the value of global ecosystem services,the actual situation of the region,and the methods such as land use dynamics、ecosystem service value assessment model、principal component analysis and grey GM(1,1)prediction model.The results show that the land use structure in Changsha has changed greatly in the past 11 years,and the overall trend is that the cultivated land,garden land,forest land,water area and unused land area decrease year by year,while the construction land area increases.The ecosystem service value of Changsha continues to decrease,the service value generated by cultivated land,garden land,forest land,water area and unused land decreases year by year,and the negative service value generated by construction land increases rapidly year by year,leading to the trend that the total ecosystem service value decreases year by year.It is predicted that in the next 8 years,the construction land area of Changsha will continue to increase,the area of other land types will continue to decrease,and the total ecosystem service value will continue to decline.The research results and methods can provide references for the formulation and implementation of land use planning and ecological environment protection policies in Hunan province and Changsha city,as well as for the research and practice of ecosystem service value.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2009 to 2019,the area of cultivated land,garden land,forest land,water area and unused land in Changsha decreased year by year,while the area of construction land increased from 1.1746 million hm2 to 1.18 million hm2;(2)From 2009 to 2019,the value of ecosystem services in Changsha decreased from 1936.556×108 to 1527.587×108 yuan,a total decrease of 408.97×108 yuan,with a change rate of-21.12%.(3)From 2009 to 2019,the contribution of hydrology regulation,climate regulation,biodiversity maintenance and other service functions in Changsha accounted for more than 10%of the total value,which were the main ecosystem service functions in Changsha.(4)From 2009 to 2019,socio-economic factors are the most important driving factors of land use change in Changsha that also the most important factors indirectly affect the ecosystem service value of Changsha.The driving factors are sorted as follows:GDP>local fiscal revenue>urban population>per capita GDP>housing construction area>green coverage area>rural population.(5)It is predicted that the area of construction land will continue to increase,the area of other land types will continue to decrease,and the total ecosystem service value will continue to decline in Changsha from 2020 to 2029. |
