Research On Allocation Of Carbon Emissions Allowance Considering Multi-Scenario Prediction

The period of 13th Five-Year Plan is not only a period of strategic opportunities in which China can develop its advantages,adjust and optimize its structure,and accelerate its transformation and upgrading,but also a period of severe challenges such as climate change,pollution and international pressures.In the Paris Agreement signed in 2015,China specified the emission reduction target for dual control of total carbon emissions and intensity in 2030.And China launched a national unified carbon trading market officially at the end of 2017based on seven pilots.The allocation of carbon emission allowance is the prerequisite for the effective development of the carbon trading market.And it’s significant to aim to the goal of dual control of carbon emissions and intensity,bringing the market mechanism into operation.Proper allocation of carbon emission allowance at the provincial level has great practical significance for the successful completion of China’s overall emission reduction goals and the sustainable development of the provinces’ economies.This is not only a institutional guarantee for sustainable development in China,but also an objective requirement for a national unified carbon trading market.Therefore,based on the multi-scenario prediction of carbon emissions and the use of multiple models,this paper uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative research to conduct a systematic research on the allocation of carbon emission allowance.Firstly,based on China’s carbon emissions status and policy orientation,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of China’s carbon emissions from three perspectives:energy,economy,and society.Then,based on the BP neural network model,the total carbon emissions and intensity of China in 2030 under various development scenarios are analyzed.And these scientific predictions lay a foundation for the allocation of carbon emission allowance.The carbon emission allowance allocation plan for each province in China in 2030 can be obtained based on the carbon emission allowance allocation indicator system and ZSG-DEA model.This paper determines the carbon emission allowance allocation plan based on scientific predictions of different development scenarios in China,which can effectively improve the scientific reliability of the allocation plan.Based on the study results,several policy recommendations are put forward to fulfil China’s carbon emission reduction commitments.Finally,in view of the existing problems of carbon emission allowance allocation policies,this paper proposes four optimization suggestion:improving the carbon emissions accounting system,formulating regional differentiated policies,coordinating the allocation of allowance between industries,and expanding the industry coverage of carbon emission allowance allocation.The improvement of policies can promote the sustainable development of China’s emission reduction work.