Carbon Emission Mitigation Effect Of Optimized Power Supply Structure Under Marketization Of Electricity Price

China’s coal-based energy consumption structure is one of the key factors leading to severe carbon emissions.Electricity sector is the most energy-intensive and carbonintensive sector in China,whose adjustment and transformation of the energy input structure is imminent.On the one hand,with the continuous promulgation of policies and regulations in China,the green transformation of the power generation structure is accelerating,and the technology level is also continuously improving.The renewable and clean power generation technology is developing particularly rapidly.On the other hand,the new round of the electricity system reform is also in full swing,as its core link,the market-oriented reform of electricity prices will directly affect the level of electricity prices.In the future,the electricity sector will achieve the goal of marketoriented reforms.The carbon emission mitigation effect brought by the optimization of the power generation structure will inevitably be different from that under the current pricing mechanism.The effect of carbon mitigation in the adjustment of power generation structure under the background of electricity price reform has important theoretical and practical significance for China’s future sustainable economic and social development.Based on the Hunan University Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model(MCHUGE),this article simulates the fact that the energy structure of the power generation sector adjusts by shocking the direct consumption coefficient of fossil fuels in the electricity sector and the growth rate of fixed capital investment.At the same time,considering the current grid companies have absolute monopoly stages in specific regions,this article breaks the assumption of zero profit for each sector in the CGE model.With reference to Horridge’s Lerner pricing model,an incomplete competition module is introduced in the electricity sector to depict the electricity sector’s Monopoly pricing behavior.Three scenarios are designed: a benchmark scenario,and power energy structure adjustment scenario that does not consider electricity price reforms,and an power energy structure adjustment scenario that does consider electricity price reforms,and compare their respective carbon emissions and the paths generated by the differentiated results.The simulation results show that the adjustment of the power generation structure can effectively reduce the growth rate of carbon emissions of the electricity sector by affecting the input-output structure of the power generation side and the coal price and output.After the introduction of the electricity price reform scenario,the growth rate of carbon emissions in the short term has declined compared to monopoly pricing.In the long run,the marginal cost of the electricity sector has continued to decline,resulting in an increase in intermediate inputs including energy inputs.The row effect shows a certain "rebound effect" in carbon emissions.However,the market-oriented reform of electricity prices can bring about an increase in GDP and at the same time optimize the energy consumption structure.To a certain extent,it has a positive impact on the sustainable development of the economy.