The Research On The Influence Of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Market Pilot Policy On Power Supply Structure

Since the reform and opening up,with the continuous development of China’s economy,the problem of unbalanced and inadequate social development has been gradually emerging.“We should strive to build China into a strong modern socialist country with the traits of prosperous,strong,democratic,civilized,harmonious and beautiful,” the report of the 19 th National Congress of Communist Party of China said.It emphasizes the urgency of building a beautiful new China in which human coexist with nature harmoniously.The construction of carbon emission trading market in China has been put on the agenda under this background.And as to explore the road from regional pilot to nationwide promotion of carbon emission trading,the power generation industry has been selected as the leading industry for the implementation of this policy.In order to explore the effect of carbon emission trading policy from the perspective of power generation industry,this paper takes the power supply structure as the breakthrough of the research,studies the effect of China’s carbon emission trading market pilot policy on the power supply structure from the perspective of theory and empirical analysis.Based on the research conclusion,policy recommendations have been proposed for perfecting China’s carbon emission trading market system construction,and realize the optimization of power supply structure.This paper aims to study the influence of China’s carbon emission trading market pilot policy on power supply structure.First,based on the in-depth study of the classical peak-load pricing model of electricity economics,import the policy variables that describe the characteristics of carbon emission trading market into the basic model.Then generates a new mathematical model.Furthermore,investigating the impact of carbon emission trading pilot policy on the power supply structure under different market structure.The new theoretical model results indicate the carbon emission trading pilot policy can effectively inhibit the operation time of high emission power generating units represented by thermal power.It improves the operation time of low emission power generating units represented by hydropower.Thus to promote the development of low carbon and green power,optimize the structure of the power supply.Secondly,the provincial panel data of 31 regions(including provinces,municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions.)from 2009 to 2017 are selected as the research samples(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan).The econometric model based on Difference in Difference method is used to analyze the whole sample,sub regional sample and so on.The empirical results show that the carbon emission trading pilot policy effectively reduces the average utilization hours of high emission power generating units represented by thermal power,and promotes the average utilization hours of low emission power generating units represented by hydropower.Moreover,from the regional level,the implementation of the carbon emission trading pilot policy in the eastern region and municipalities directly under the central government are better.From the perspective of carbon quota allocation method,the allocation method based on “baseline method” is a preferable initial allocation method of carbon emission quota,which can promote to better achieve its policy objectives.Finally,combined with the current situation of China’s carbon emission trading market construction,the paper proposes policy suggestions from the perspective of improving the construction of carbon emission trading market,thus to realizing the optimization of power supply structure in China.