Research On Regional Carbon Emission Rights Allocation And Emission Path Based On WITCH Model

In recent years,climate issues such as the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide emissions have attracted more and more attention form sectors of society.As the world’s largest carbon emitter and energy consumer,China is facing major demands from all countries in the world to assume responsibility for reducing emissions pressure.As a responsible big country,at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference,the Chinese government solemnly promised that by 2030,China’s carbon emissions intensity will be reduced by 60%-65% compared with2005.To complete the carbon emission reduction commitment without affecting the normal development of the social economy,we need to formulate a scientific,reasonable and effective carbon emission reduction policy.This article starts with the current status of regional carbon emissions,builds an initial carbon allocation model for carbon emission rights quota for each region from 2005 to 2030,and uses the WITCH model based on China’s regional carbon emission path for region carbon under different policy scenarios.Analyze the carbon emission path,and finally put forward policy suggestions on the optimization of China’s carbon emission path based on the results of the carbon emission path:The first part compares and analyzes the current status of carbon emissions in various regions and analyzes the importance of carbon emission reduction: firstly,based on the total carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emissions,comparative analysis of the differences in carbon emissions levels between regions.Then analyze the necessity of implementing carbon emission reduction measures in China.The second part allocates the initial allocation of carbon emission right: firstly,select the index system for the allocation of initial carbon emission rights based on the principles of fairness,efficiency and feasibility,then use the entropy weight method to weight the weights of each indicator,and finally based on the calculation of the total carbon emission right yields the initial carbon emission allowances for each region from 2005 to 2030.The third part constructs the WITCH model based on China’s regional carbon emission path: based on the regional carbon emission allowances determined above,using the idea of comprehensive assessment of regional climate change,on the basis of World induced technical change hybrid model whose shorthand is WITCH,the introduction of carbon tradingmechanism and carbon the transaction volume is constrained to build a comprehensive regional climate assessment model that suits China’s national conditions.Finally,the improved WITCH model is used to simulate and analyze the changing trend of carbon emission paths under different policy scenarios.The fourthly part proposes strategic suggestion for the optimization of China’s carbon emissions: at the end of the article,based on the research analysis results of the previous article,it proposed strategic recommendations for China’s carbon emission reduction measures.