Research On Causes Of Bond Default And Early Warning Of State-owned Enterprises

In recent years,there have been frequent defaults of state-owned enterprise bonds in China's bond market.Due to the implicit government guarantee and the tradition of “rigid redemption”,investors have insufficient expectations of the default risk of state-owned enterprise bonds.After the breach of the bond default,market sentiment and investment confidence have been generated.This has damaged the interests of investors.State-owned enterprises often have relatively close ties with local governments,and government actions have an important influence on state-owned enterprise bond.Therefore,there are more uncertainties in the state-owned enterprise bond defaults than private enterprises,and there are special requirements for the warning of default risks of state-owned enterprises.Based on the theory of credit risk and financial distress,this paper selects Yongmei Holdings as a case,and analyzes the reasons for Yongmei Holdings' bond default.This article comprehensively analyzes the causes of Yongmei Holdings' bond defaults,and focuses on the government's willingness to rescue and countermeasures.On the basis of summarizing the reasons for the default of Yongmei Holdings,this article attempts to construct a state-owned enterprise bond default warning framework,comprehensively considering special factors such as credit risk analysis elements and government behavior,in order to achieve an effective warning of state-owned enterprise.The conclusions of this research are as follows:(1)State-owned enterprise bond default is the result of multiple factors.Among them,the government's willingness to rescue and response measures have a particularly prominent influence,which should be considered.(2)When pre-warning state-owned enterprise bond defaults,quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis should be combined,and the influence of government actions,the quality of intermediaries,changes in the external economic environment,company operations and financial conditions should be fully considered.(3)The healthy and orderly development of credit bond market requires the joint efforts.Regulatory agencies and intermediary agencies should each fulfill their responsibilities.Bond issuers should strengthen internal management and do a good job in information disclosure.Investors should continuously improve risk awareness and enhance judgment.Finally,this article puts forward relevant suggestions for different subjects: State-owned enterprises should enhance the ability of state-owned assets to operate,optimize capital structure and debt structure,and start to establish internal enterprise risk warning mechanisms;regulatory agencies should work to improve the securities market supervision and management mechanism and reduce information asymmetry;intermediaries should maintain independence and improve the quality of their work,give full play to the role of the “gatekeeper” of the bond market,and check the quality of the information disclosure.The contributions of this article are mainly reflected in three aspects: First,this article has a certain theoretical significance for enriching the research theories of the causes of state-owned enterprise bond defaults and providing relevant ideas for empirical research.Second,this article will help to break investors' preconceptions about “rigid redemption” of state-owned enterprise bonds and return the bond market to the normal operating mechanism of survival of the fittest.Third,this article constructs a state-owned enterprise bond default warning system,which is in line with the recent policy research direction on state-owned enterprise bond defaults,and has certain practical significance.