Study On Early Warning Of Bond Default Of State-owned Enterprises

With the continuous development and improvement of China’s bond market,bonds have become an important financing means that a growing number of companies are willing to choose.However,the default behavior is frequent outbreaks,from private enterprises to back the government’s large state-owned enterprises,state-owned enterprises,there is no escape,especially in 2020,the state-owned enterprise bond defaults seems to become more "popular",Local governments have come forward to endorse,more caused the market for this kind of nature of the main concern.In this case,establishing and improving the bond risk early warning mechanism is particularly important for the issuer to do a good job in early identification,early warning and early response during the duration of the bonds.in view of the above setting,this paper mainly studies the subject of state-owned enterprises,and studies the bond default problem of them.Taking Y Group as the typical representative,it is concluded that the default is caused by the joint influence of economic downturn,multiple restrictions on industrial development,dereliction of responsibility of financial intermediaries,serious corporate governance problems and poor corporate management.Combined with the five aspects of reason and the relevant literature,and consider the acquirable of information,this paper set up the quantitative financial information and qualitative non-financial information,with double dimension(namely systematic risk dimensions,unsystematic risk dimensions),the five elements(that is,economic factor,industry factor,management factor,financial factors,public opinion elements)as the core of state-owned enterprise bond default warning framework,In addition,the situation of Y Group is substituted for verification,and the conclusion is drawn that each element of the framework can accurately predict corporate bond default.Finally,strategies are proposed for Y Group to prevent the default of existing bonds from occurring again according to the predicted risk points.It is hoped that this paper can provide reference opinions for China’s state-owned bond issuing enterprises,and in the meantime provide some reference information for China’s bond default early warning research.