The Environmental Early-warning Models Of Shale Gas Development And Production

As one of the most important unconventional oil and gas resources,the exploration and production of shale gas plays an important strategic role for ensuring national energy security.However,the further development of shale gas resource in China causes many serious ecological and environmental problems which hinder the sustainable development of the region and affecting the large scale commercial development of shale gas resources.The acquisition of energy shouldn’t gain at long-term environmental expense.We should pay attention to the environmental problems in the production of shale gas resources.It is a problem that must be solved for ensuring and promoting the sustainable development of shale gas resources that the production of shale gas resources should be coordinated with ecological environment protection.Therefore,it is necessary to construct an ecological environment early-warning system of shale gas resource development to monitor the pollution impact caused by the overall process of development of resource and issue early-warning signals for the deterioration to assist enterprises to make timely decisions.This paper is mainly organized as follows:Firstly,the complexity of ecological environment earning warning for shale gas resource development is analyzed from the point of the connotation and characteristics of shale gas resources based on the theory of ecological carrying capacity and sustainable development theory.Secondly,based on the analysis of the whole life cycle of shale gas resource development and the environmental problems,early-warning indicators system is designed by PSR model through different extraction methods of early-warning indicators.And then,the expert scoring method and frequency distribution analysis are used to select key indicators.Furtherly,the key indicators are secondly selected by the combination weighting methods to obtain the final indicators set.Thirdly,due to the need of different periods of early-warning,the annual ecological environment early-warning model for shale gas resource development based on compositive index method and grey prediction model is created to analyze and predict annual police alarm,and the monthly ecological environment early-warning model for shale gas resource development based on compositive index method and dynamic neural network is created to analyze and predict monthly police alarm.Finally,the applicability of the model is tested by a concrete example of shale gas development.This paper involves some subject theories including management science,computer science and environmental science aiming at improving the scientific,timeliness and practicality in ecological environment early-warning for shale gas development.The breakthrough of this paper is to dynamically assess the ecological environment and issue different early-warning signals,and comprehensively use the knowledge,expert experience and different techniques to construct an early-warning model.The actual situation with the Pareto rule is combined to design the early-warning interval in some place and the ecological environment early-warning operating system is developed to assess ecological environment warning information timely.Therefore,early intervention measures can be taken to reduce the possibility of damage to the ecological environment.The application system could reduce the complexity of the calculation and makes administrators simpler to use the early-warning model.This paper provides a new idea and method for effectively reducing the damage of ecological environment in the development of shale gas resources.