| Offshore oil development has many unique features, such as high investment, high risk, high-yield and short production cycle. In order to improve offshore platform production and management level and achieve maximum economic efficiency, an oil and gas production dynamic warning system should be established to predict early warnings for the factors that affect production change in oil field development process. According to the established warning system, problems during oilfield development process should be diagnosed and discovered and the future trend of production dynamic change should be predicted, at the meantime decision-making basis to adjust and improve oilfield development project can also be provided.Based on taking full advantages of existing condition on the platform, alert theory, system theory, oil and gas field development theory and artificial intelligence theory combining with the actual situation of oilfield development were all taken into consideration in the paper. Firstly, according to the characteristic of oil production early warning system, oil production in the block was considered as warning alarm index and the influencing factors which were closely related to oil production was considered as warning signs. Secondly, according to the actual production data and reservoir geology data, data mining techniques was adopted to select proper index that closely relevant to oil production into index set, then oil and gas development theory was adopted to analyze each index in the index set, thus minimum complete sets of building early warning system were determined by excluding the index that closely relevant to each other. Thirdly, artificial neural network prediction model was developed base on research of modern artificial intelligence theory and algorithm, the parameters in the model were also optimized. At last, the software for offshore oil and gas production platform warning was developed base on C# programing language and Visual Studio platform. The warning method stated in the paper was confirmed to achieve oil production forecasting and early warning through verification in field, so it has important guiding significance to the adjustment and improvement of oilfield development plan. |
